Ciena (CIEN)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$321.00+1.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CIEN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $321 the market pays 8.0× p/s — above the 3.1× p/s peer median but in line with its own 11× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $229 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $347–$650. Note: our $229 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($347–$650). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $508.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $55.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $58.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $38.89 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$347.00 – $650.00 (median $508.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1087% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.11/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $115.49 |
| 23.4 |
| 4.94 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $119.45 | 37.2 | 3.21 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $126.82 | 3.1 | 40.34 | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $409.46 | 127.6 | 3.21 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $109.00 | 37.2 | 2.93 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $202.02 | 3.1 | 64.26 | guidance | low |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $231.26 | 3.1 | 73.56 | guidance | medium |