Ciena (CIEN)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$230.81-15.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CIEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers
CIEN — capital allocation — CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALAN…
Dated 2026-06-11
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT The information set forth in
Why it matters: Two large customers made up 41.7% of Q3 revenue. A sharp drop in their share may signal weaker demand or order timing.
Worry ifThe next results show two customers still make up at least 35% of revenue.
Less concerning ifThe next results show two customers make up less than 30% of revenue, alongside lower total revenue.
Why it matters: Ciena raised its 2026 revenue view after strong growth. Revenue above the Q4 floor would support that growth trend.
Supportive ifOn the December 10, 2026 results, Q4 revenue is above $1.70 billion, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is below $1.70 billion or Ciena reports a delay in customer orders.
Why it matters: Higher margins would extend the recent rise in gross margin. Lower margins could point to weaker mix or higher costs.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted gross margin is above 44.5%, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted gross margin is below 44.5%.
Why it matters: Ciena raised its yearly revenue view in Q3. Missing the new low end would weaken evidence that recent growth can continue.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue is below $6.37 billion, the low end of the raised range.
Less concerning ifFY2026 revenue is at or above $6.37 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$363 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $944 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,319 loss on $10,000 · 63.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.