Clearfield, Inc. (CLFD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.65+1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 119.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CLFD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Clearfield, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the results of its second quarter of fiscal 2026 ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifA plan for share repurchases over $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company's financial health is improving or worsening. Investors will look closely at revenue and profit margins.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the revenue target of $160M to $170M shows strong business health. It indicates growth and stability for investors.
Supportive ifClearfield confirms revenue guidance remains intact in its next earnings call on August 5, 2026.
Worry ifThe company lowers its revenue guidance to below $160M.
Why it matters: Improving EPS is key to achieving the full-year target of $0.48 to $0.62.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at $0.17 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $0.17.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $523 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,799 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifOrder backlog increases beyond $31.6 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOrder backlog decreases or remains flat.
Why it matters: Supply chain problems may hurt revenue and profits. This can lower investor confidence.
Watch forManagement shares a good update on supply chain conditions in the Q3 earnings call.
Also watch forManagement points out worsening supply chain problems in the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: This range shows Clearfield can recover from losses and meet its EPS goals.
Supportive ifNet income per share from continuing operations lands within the range of $0.14 to $0.21.
Worry ifNet income per share falls below $0.14.
Why it matters: Extending the line of credit helps keep cash available. It supports operations and growth.
Watch forClearfield successfully extends the line of credit to July 2026.
Also watch forThe company does not extend the line of credit. This may cause cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A lower backlog may show weak demand or problems in execution.
Worry ifOrder backlog drops below $21 million.
Less concerning ifOrder backlog goes up or stays above $21 million.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal trouble for Clearfield's sales. It may show that the growth phase is ending.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below average for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: Timely shipment of this order is key to Clearfield's growth strategy in the data center market.
Supportive ifThe $22 million order for the data center project will ship on time in early fiscal 2027.
Worry ifThe shipment of the $22 million order is delayed beyond early fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: New orders will show that Clearfield is growing in the data center market.
Supportive ifA new order over $20 million for data center projects is coming.
Worry ifNo big new orders in the data center segment for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this level would show ongoing money-making issues.
Worry ifEPS reported at or above $0.14.
Less concerning ifEPS reported below $0.14.
Why it matters: What management thinks about making money shows if the company is improving. This matters for investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says it plans to make money in the next 12 months.
Worry ifManagement keeps pointing out problems with making money.
Why it matters: Extending the line of credit is key for financial stability and growth funding.
Watch forConfirmation of the line of credit extended beyond July 2026.
Also watch forNo extension of the line of credit by July 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can maintain revenue growth despite challenges.
Worry ifQ4 sales guidance falls within the range of $38 million to $42 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 sales guidance is over $42 million. This shows stronger demand.
Why it matters: If fulfilled, this shows Clearfield is growing in the data center market.
Supportive ifClearfield ships the $22 million order for the hyperscale data center.
Worry ifDelays or cancellations of the $22 million order could happen.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean the company controls costs well. It also shows they can set prices.
Supportive ifGross margin from continuing operations exceeds 32.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross margin is below 31.8%. This shows ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show management's confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifClearfield plans share repurchases over $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf share repurchases slow or stop, it shows less confidence.