Clearfield, Inc. (CLFD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.72-12.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 133.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 109.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers
CLFD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-20
CEO — Cheryl Beranek: The filing announces a planned CEO retirement with a structured transition period and title change to Emeritus, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Clearfield said Q4 and full-year results should match its August guidance. This report tests whether it met the lowered sales and profit ranges.
Watch forQ4 sales land within $38 million to $42 million, and full-year sales land within $151 million to $155 million. Q4 earnings per share land within $0.00 to $0.07.
Also watch forQ4 sales fall below $38 million or full-year sales fall below $151 million. Q4 earnings per share fall below $0.00.
Why it matters: This is Clearfield's first large hyperscale data center order. Shipments would show that the new market is adding sales.
Supportive ifClearfield reports that shipments on the $22 million order began in early fiscal 2027, as planned.
Worry ifClearfield reports that shipments did not begin in early fiscal 2027, or that the order was cut or canceled.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell to 31.8%. A one-time inventory charge hurt the result, while tariff refunds will not recur.
Supportive ifA later quarter's gross margin rises above 31.8%. The $2.6 million inventory charge does not happen again.
Worry ifA later quarter's gross margin is 31.8% or less. Or Clearfield reports another large inventory charge.
Why it matters: Backlog fell 34% from Q2 and 32% from a year earlier. A rise would show stronger orders for future sales.
Supportive ifQuarter-end backlog rises above $21 million. No new large booked order is removed.
Worry ifQuarter-end backlog falls below $21 million. Or Clearfield removes another large order because it no longer expects to fill it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $580 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,799 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.