Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.51-3.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLNE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $70 million in 2026 | Clean Energy Fuels aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $70-$75 million in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is estimated to range from approximately $70 million to $75 million.” “Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is estimated to range from approximately $70 million to $75 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business with a sector tailwind, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management’s targets remain in place, but recent results are weak relative to the industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to CLNE being cheap versus peers, while the model’s confidence is low and its expectations gap is negative. The snapshot labels expectations as justified rather than fragile, though it flags a turbulent sector backdrop.
Near term, execution is mixed: first-half 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was below the same quarters last year, while management still projects full-year growth. RNG gallons sold growth slowed from 33.2% in the first quarter to 2.9% in the second, and station expansion continues. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; a CFO transition is noted, but its impact is not established in the evidence.
Over the next year, the thesis hinges on management delivering its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal and sustaining fleet volume growth and network expansion. Sector support could continue if MPC, VLO, and PSX keep reporting strong results, but weaker results from those companies could remove that tailwind. A guidance cut is another key downside scenario.
Over a one-to-three-year view, CLNE has growth initiatives and sector support, but weak recent performance, loss-making status, and high risk make execution the central test. The evidence supports a watchful, uncertain thesis rather than a confirmed improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Cash from operations improves from negative to positive | This could lead to improved profitability and cash flow over time. | Improving | Cash from operations remains negative through FY26 | Cash from operations: $28.786M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202628,786,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful CEO and COO transition with stable leadership | Leadership changes bring fresh management focused on stability. | Intact | Leadership turmoil or key executive departures occur | Qualitative: 3 orderly transitions (CEO, COO, CFO) with no turmoil CEO and COO promoted internally; CFO retired with immediate internal successor. No signs of leadership turmoil or key departures. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.05 → $-0.01 · observed estimates
$0.45B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.05 | $453,577,820 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | $473,148,132 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.00 | $464,109,849 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.00 | $464,109,849 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.00 | $464,109,849 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.00 | $464,109,849 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.00 | $464,109,849 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.00 | $466,276,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.01 | $463,793,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.01 | $460,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.01 | $440,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.01 | $440,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.01 | $440,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.01 | $440,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.01 | $440,693,182 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.01 | $435,397,800 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.