Catalyst Bancorp Inc (CLST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.81+1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
CLST — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-26
Other Events On June 26, 2026, Catalyst Bancorp, Inc. (“Catalyst”), the parent company for Catalyst Bank, and Lakeside Bancshares, Inc. (“Lakeside”), the parent company for Lakeside Bank, issued a joint press release announcing that Lakeside shareholders have approved the pending merger with Catalyst and all required regulatory approvals have been obtained with respect to the previously announced mergers (the “Mergers”) of Lakeside with and into Catalyst and Lakeside Bank with and into Cataly…
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for revenue. A rebound would show effective management and market expansion.
Supportive ifTotal loans went up from last quarter. This ends the recent decline.
Worry ifTotal loans continue to decline for a third consecutive quarter.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money the company makes. A rise means better loan pricing or cost control.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases above 3.86% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines from the current level.
Why it matters: Starting share repurchases shows trust in the company's value and its plan for capital.
Supportive ifCatalyst resumes its share repurchase program, buying back shares as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe company says there will be another delay in share repurchases or cuts the buyback amount.
Why it matters: M&A can enhance Catalyst's market position and growth. Progress signals strong strategy.
Supportive ifManagement announces more acquisitions or partnerships. This helps them grow their presence.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements are made. There are also delays in Lakeside Bancshares integration.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$34 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $132 loss on $10,000 · 1.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $731 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: M&A can enhance Catalyst's market position and growth. Progress signals strong strategy.
Supportive ifCatalyst says it has finished an acquisition or merger. This will grow its operations.
Worry ifNo M&A activity occurs or announced deals fall through.
Why it matters: Stable or growing loans would signal progress in Catalyst's efforts to increase lending. This is crucial for future profitability.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase or stabilize above $162.8 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans decline further from $162.8 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Catalyst Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifThree-year revenue growth stays above 15%.
Why it matters: Litigation may delay or stop the merger. This affects growth plans and investor trust.
Worry ifA court ruling favors Catalyst. This lets the merger move forward without delays.
Less concerning ifA court ruling goes against Catalyst. This causes delays or problems with the merger.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for Catalyst Bancorp's expansion. Success here boosts revenue.
Supportive ifManagement announces new loan products and partnerships. This helps them lend more money.
Worry ifNo new loan plans are announced. This shows growth efforts are not moving forward.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean worse credit quality and lower profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $1,000 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below $1,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Loan balances have gone down recently. Stabilizing growth may show better market conditions.
Supportive ifTotal loans increased this quarter. This reverses a recent decline of $162.8 million.
Worry ifTotal loans continue to decline, falling below $162.8 million again.
Why it matters: Fewer NPAs mean better credit quality. This shows good risk management after the acquisition.
Supportive ifNPAs drop below $2.3 million. This shows better asset quality.
Worry ifNPAs go up or stay above $2.3 million. This shows possible credit problems.
Why it matters: Steady deposit growth is important. It helps fund loans and keeps stability.
Supportive ifTotal deposits rose above $196.4 million. This shows strong customer retention and growth.
Worry ifTotal deposits dropped below $196.4 million. This may mean losing customers.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks shows confidence in finances. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifCatalyst shares news of new share buybacks after the Lakeside merger.
Worry ifNo new share buyback news comes out. This may mean capital issues.
Why it matters: If integration is successful, it shows management can grow the company. It will also help them reach more customers.
Supportive ifLakeside Bank needs to switch to Catalyst Bank's systems by November 2026.
Worry ifLook for delays or problems in the integration of Lakeside Bank.
Why it matters: The merger could improve Catalyst's market position. It may also boost growth potential.
Supportive ifThe merger is confirmed. All approvals are done.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise that postpone the merger completion.
Why it matters: More charge-offs may show credit quality problems after the merger. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs rose above $1,000. This shows possible credit quality issues.
Less concerning ifNet loan charge-offs are below $1,000. This suggests credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: Changes in deposit growth can show how much customers trust the bank.
Watch forTotal deposits grow more than 1% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forTotal deposits decline or grow less than 1% in Q3 2026.