Reading CMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMC free→Reading CMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMC free→NYSEMaterialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, with management's recent track record being steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $78 CMC trades at 15× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $75–$89. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.87 → $1.95 (+4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,996.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing and trends in the sector.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows earnings per share are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows earnings per share are worse than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$75.00 – $89.00 (median $80.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CMC aims to expand its precast platform through the acquisitions of Foley and CP&P, enhancing its market position and financial profile.
CMC is focused on reducing net leverage to a target of 2x within the previously committed timeframe.
CMC continues to enhance margins through its Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) program, driving operational efficiency.
Why it matters: The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports could signal inflation trends. These trends affect demand for metals.
Confirms one read:CPI and PPI reports show inflation rates lower than expected.
Confirms the other:CPI and PPI reports show inflation rates higher than expected.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean a turnaround in the materials sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth for Commercial Metals turns positive year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: CPI data can impact material costs and demand in the sector.
Confirms one read:CPI data shows inflation is easing. This may help demand for materials.
Confirms the other:CPI data shows inflation rising, which may hurt materials demand.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the materials sector. This could indicate a recovery in demand for Commercial Metals' products.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth exceeds 1% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains at or below 1% year over year.