Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Compass Therapeutics, Inc. (CMPX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.68-10.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMPX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash burn from operations stays near -$17.3M or improves | The company controls operating losses near -$20.3M and manages cash burn around -$17.3M. | Broken | Cash burn worsens beyond -$17.3M next quarter | Cash from operations: $-13.417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$17.3M cash burn next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-13,417,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CMPX is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, not a proven earnings compounder: it is loss-making, and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with mixed progress on tovecimig and on-track development work for CTX-8371 and CTX-10726.
The evidence gives no valuation measure or market-expectations estimate, so whether CMPX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No priced-in fragility gates fired, but that does not establish that expectations are low or that the valuation is resilient.
Near term, execution risk is elevated: CMPX missed earnings in August, and the snapshot flags a 52% miss probability for the next print. Over the multi-year view, management is advancing its clinical programs, but tovecimig remains uncertain after the FDA requested an additional survival trial; cash declined to $180 million by 2026-Q2, while management says it funds operations into 2028.
The thesis depends on clinical and regulatory progress, especially whether tovecimig can address the FDA’s request and whether the other programs produce useful data, with initial CTX-10726 data expected in Q4 2026. Near-term sentiment also hinges on the next guidance and broader conditions: weakening job growth could add recession concerns, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CMPX remains a high-risk clinical-development story with a stated cash runway into 2028, but weak recent performance and unresolved regulatory needs limit confidence. The thesis depends on clinical execution, regulatory progress, and preserving cash runway. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating losses remain near -$20.3M or improve |
| The company controls operating losses near -$20.3M and manages cash burn around -$17.3M. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$20.3M next quarter |
Operating income: $-26.979M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$20.3M operating loss next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-26,979,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
FDA path advances after Tovecimig trial win | Compass Therapeutics advances with FDA path confirmation after Tovecimig trial win. | Under Pressure | No FDA path progress or negative regulatory news by end 2026 | Qualitative: FDA path confirmed Jun 2026, but Wedbush downgrade Sep 2026 cites trial concerns June 2026 FDA path win followed by September 2026 Wedbush downgrade on trial concerns. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows from $0 in 2026 to >$25M in 2027 | A supporting condition in Compass Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $25M in FY 2027. | Intact | Revenue fails to reach $25M in 2027 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $25M in FY 2027. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.46 → $-0.56 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.46 | $25,268,860 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.44 | $26,920,310 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.44 | $26,920,310 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.44 | $26,920,310 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.46 | $25,270,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.54 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.54 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.55 | $23,324,153 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.55 | $12,877,429 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.56 | $10,153,714 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.