Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.56+1.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMTL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
CMTL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events. In connection with the amendments, on July 31, 2026, Comtech made voluntary prepayments of $6.5 million toward the term loan under the Amended Credit Agreement and $3.5 million toward the priority term loan under the Amended Subordinated Credit Agreement. The $6.5 million prepayment related to the Amended Credit Agreement was in addition to Comtech repaying $1.0 million of scheduled term loan principal on July 31, 2026. As previously reported in Comtech’s Quarterly Report on For…
Why it matters: More net bookings show stronger demand for public safety solutions. This helps future revenue.
Supportive ifNet bookings in Allerium exceed $70.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet bookings in Allerium fall below $70.5 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completing this deal could help Comtech grow. It may also improve its market position.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will show the Wavestream deal is done.
Worry ifThere may be a delay or cancellation of the acquisition.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth is vital for the company's long-term success. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue shows growth or stays above $106 million.
Worry ifRevenue keeps falling below $106 million.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing. This affects how investors feel.
Watch forThe earnings report shows good results and better guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows poor results and worse guidance.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$238 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $786 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,492 loss on $10,000 · 74.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net bookings and the book-to-bill ratio show future revenue potential.
Watch forNet bookings exceed $70.5 million with a book-to-bill ratio above 0.67x in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet bookings fall below $70.5 million with a book-to-bill ratio below 0.67x in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Allerium's sales growth shows success in public safety and the company’s plan.
Supportive ifAllerium's net sales increase year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAllerium's net sales decline year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows Comtech faces problems with growth, even with management's focus.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $95 million. This shows a drop of more than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stayed above $95 million. This shows better performance than expected.
Why it matters: A higher book-to-bill ratio shows strong demand. It suggests future revenue potential.
Supportive ifAllerium's book-to-bill ratio will rise above 0.32x next quarter.
Worry ifBook-to-bill ratio remains below 0.32x.
Why it matters: Finishing this sale will help Comtech focus on public safety tech. It will also help its finances.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q4 2026 after getting regulatory approval.
Worry ifThe transaction does not close as planned due to regulatory delays or issues.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means more efficiency and stronger finances.
Supportive ifGAAP cash flows from operations exceed $6.1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGAAP cash flows from operations fall below $6.1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening trend in the tech sector. This could impact Comtech's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Closing this sale will make Comtech stronger. It will help focus on public safety.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q4 2026 after getting regulatory approval.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close or is significantly delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More revenue shows that management is doing a good job.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $106 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines further from $106 million.
Why it matters: Keeping positive cash flow is key for good finances and stable operations.
Supportive ifGAAP cash flows from operations remain above $6 million for Q3.
Worry ifGAAP cash flows from operations drop below $6 million.