Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.18-4.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMTL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 116.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
CMTL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-14
CFO — Michael Bondi: The CFO is departing in connection with a major business divestiture, which is a significant management change but described as amicable and supported by the company.
Why it matters: The sale would bring in $157.5 million before deal adjustments. It also sets up Comtech's shift toward public safety.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms that the sale of most of S&S to Gilat has closed. It states the final cash proceeds.
Worry ifThe deal misses the stated calendar 2026 window. Or Comtech reports a failed key approval or closing condition.
Why it matters: The new finance chief takes over during a major sale and business shift. A smooth handoff matters for reports and financing plans.
Worry ifRich Nyren becomes CFO after the fiscal Q1 2027 Form 10-Q, and the filing is made by December 10, 2026.
Less concerning ifThe Form 10-Q is delayed past December 10, 2026, or the company reports a further delay in the CFO handoff.
Why it matters: The planned changes cost $13 million to $15 million first. Savings near the stated range would show those costs are paying off.
Supportive ifA company filing reports annual savings of at least $16 million after the transition. This excludes one-time costs.
Worry ifA company filing reports annual savings below $16 million after the transition. Or it delays the savings plan.
Why it matters: Backlog gives a view of demand for Allerium's public safety and network services. Growth would support its focused business plan.
Supportive ifAt the next earnings report, Allerium's funded backlog is above $520.4 million. That is its opening level for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAt the next earnings report, Allerium's funded backlog is below $520.4 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,027 loss on $10,000 · 80.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.