Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
Core & Main (CNM)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.95-3.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.42 → 3.42 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow conversion at 60% to 70% of adjusted EBITDA | Profit margins stay near 65% cash flow conversion. | Intact | cash flow conversion falls below 55% over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CNM is a steady-growth industrial business rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and recent performance has been mixed.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations are subdued. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup.
Near term, management’s revenue growth and cash-flow priorities are on track: third-quarter revenue grew 2.5% year over year, and first-half operating cash flow increased from the prior year. Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 sales guidance, but the company has a history of a deep miss and missed its most recent quarter, so execution remains a risk.
The multi-year view depends on CNM sustaining its stated growth and cash-flow goals while making its growth strategy effective. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakness from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNM’s steady growth and cash generation support an intact thesis, but sector headwinds and a record of missed results keep the outlook qualified. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Recent earnings beats show good execution despite market pressure. |
| Intact |
| Leadership changes disrupt growth strategy execution significantly |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth of 2% to 3% annually | A primary condition in Core & Main's published investment case. The stated target is 2% to 3% annual growth. | Intact | annual revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2% to 3% annual growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20262.484472 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.00 → $3.42 · observed estimates
$8.21B → $8.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.00 | $8,212,224,905 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.00 | $8,212,224,905 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.50 | $8,205,675,144 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.49 | $8,198,982,837 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.42 | $8,181,987,286 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.41 | $8,181,778,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.41 | $8,181,778,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.41 | $8,181,778,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.41 | $8,181,778,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.41 | $8,181,778,942 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.42 | $8,179,471,249 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.42 | $8,175,717,403 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.