Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.47-6.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.64 → 0.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CODI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete sale of Sterno's food service business and record gain in Q2 2026 | CODI is improving after selling Sterno's food service business. | Intact | sale not completed or gain not recorded by Q2 2026 | Sale completed & gain recorded in Q2 2026 Aug 2026 news confirms Sterno food service sale completed with gain recorded in Q2 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CODI is a higher-risk, mixed-execution business with some potential for profitable growth and debt reduction. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance has not freshly broken, but it remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence tags valuation as stretched, with CODI at a 3.57 premium versus peers; confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is 0.25, and the snapshot points to optionality, or value tied to possible future outcomes, as the main source of valuation divergence. It does not suggest that the full combination of weak execution and turbulence is already reflected in expectations.
Near term, the earnings record is erratic and CODI missed its most recent quarter, so the next report carries meaningful execution risk. In 2026-Q2, revenue fell 11.4% year over year while Subsidiary Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings at its businesses, grew 12.6%; debt and leverage also declined from year-end 2025. Management has made progress on debt reduction and lower fees, but profitable growth remains mixed.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to concerns, especially given the recent miss and fragile earnings quality. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether CODI can sustain profitable growth, continue reducing debt, and deliver on lower management fees. Industrial-sector results also matter: continued strength from MMM, VMI, and SEB could support the backdrop, while misses or weaker guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CODI’s thesis has some support from EBITDA growth and debt reduction, but revenue declines, uneven execution, and stretched valuation leave important questions unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The CEO transition is orderly. |
| Intact |
| significant leadership disruption or management turnover |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return to positive free cash flow and improved margins | A primary condition in Compass Diversified Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow yield >= 0% next 4 quarters. | Improving | free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters | Free cash flow yield: 3.84% As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 20263.84 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue at or above $1.7 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Compass Diversified Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.7 billion. | Broken | total revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $422.93M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.7 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026422,930,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.46 → $0.67 · observed estimates
$1.77B → $1.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.46 | $1,768,264,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.50 | $1,756,313,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $1,768,264,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.55 | $1,745,453,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.55 | $1,745,453,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.64 | $1,736,059,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.64 | $1,736,068,720 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.67 | $1,733,202,267 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.