Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.67+1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Total revenue at or above $1.7 billion in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $345M vs $1.7B target.
CODI is improving after selling Sterno's food service business. Revenue is near $1.7 billion in 2026. The CEO transition is orderly. Recent earnings beats show operational progress.
CODI faces high leverage limiting growth. Litigation and management volatility add risk. Revenue is expected to decline about 2% next year. Profit margins remain under pressure.
The price is about 18% above our fair value near $8.6. Analysts expect about -2% revenue growth, which is weaker than the company's recent operational improvements.
Breaks if: sale not completed or gain not recorded by Q2 2026
Breaks if: significant leadership disruption or management turnover
Breaks if: free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters
Breaks if: total revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is mixed, as management is focused on profitable growth and reducing debt, but execution has been volatile.
The market seems to price in a fragile outlook due to expensive valuation and weak execution quality. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term, especially after a recent earnings miss and a probability of missing future targets. Management's focus on reducing debt and improving financial flexibility is on track, but revenue declines raise concerns.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to drive profitable growth and navigate sector headwinds. Key forward scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and whether CODI can maintain or improve its guidance in upcoming calls.
Overall, CODI's situation is mixed with elevated risks and fragile earnings. Monitoring upcoming performance and sector trends will be crucial. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook. The sale of Sterno's food service business aligns with capital allocation objectives. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.