Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.58-6.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COGT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Launch bezuclastinib in H2 2026 | Cogent Biosciences plans to launch bezuclastinib in the second half of 2026. | Intact | launch delayed beyond 2026-12-31 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exhibit 99.1 Cogent Biosciences Reports Recent Business Highlights and Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results On track for potential approval of bezuclastinib for GIST patients (PDUFA November 30) and NonAdvSM patients (PDUFA December 30) later this year; AdvSM New Drug Application submitted to FDA on June 30 Completed onboarding of expert cross-functional Cogent customer-facing team, including all field-based commercial and medical team members Strong pro forma cash balance of $865.9 million, sufficient to fund operations into late 2028 WALTHAM, Mass.” Operating income was $-102.638 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
COGT is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotechnology company with a launch-driven, speculative growth profile. Its multi-year view is watchful: management is investing in a planned bezuclastinib launch and pipeline progress, while recent financial performance remains weak.
The evidence provides no valuation level or specific market expectations, so it is not possible to say whether COGT is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. The priced-in evidence shows low fragility, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.
Near term, results may remain weak as research and development spending stays elevated and cash declines during launch preparation. Management has repeatedly emphasized a second-half 2026 launch and funding operations into late 2028; cash plus stated access to ATM proceeds is intended to support that plan. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and the recent earnings beat does not remove the broader execution risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on launching bezuclastinib for GIST and Systemic Mastocytosis on the stated timeline, while maintaining enough funding for operations and pipeline work. Near-term conditions also matter: weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns, while continued strong results from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum. Progress on planned IND submissions and dose escalation would provide evidence that the broader pipeline is advancing.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, COGT remains a high-risk, loss-making launch and pipeline story, with substantial cash funding plans but weak recent performance and meaningful execution risks. The long-term thesis depends on launch readiness, funding discipline, and continued clinical progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS improvement toward break-even | A supporting condition in Cogent Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -$0.96 in FY27. | Broken | EPS worse than -$0.96 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fund operations into 2028 | The company has raised capital to fund operations into 2028. | Intact | cash insufficient to fund operations into 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth after bezuclastinib launch | Cogent Biosciences plans to launch bezuclastinib in the second half of 2026. | Improving | revenue falls below $345M in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exhibit 99.1 Cogent Biosciences Reports Recent Business Highlights and Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results On track for potential approval of bezuclastinib for GIST patients (PDUFA November 30) and NonAdvSM patients (PDUFA December 30) later this year; AdvSM New Drug Application submitted to FDA on June 30 Completed onboarding of expert cross-functional Cogent customer-facing team, including all field-based commercial and medical team members Strong pro forma cash balance of $865.9 million, sufficient to fund operations into late 2028 WALTHAM, Mass.” Operating income was $-102.638 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.94 → $-1.09 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.94 | $348,891,610 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.91 | $393,655,520 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.77 | $348,895,417 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.94 | $315,773,152 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.97 | $310,294,736 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.03 | $292,762,721 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.02 | $294,813,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.03 | $292,940,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.03 | $292,804,942 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.08 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.09 | $283,687,541 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.