Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.67-0.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COLL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COLL — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-10-19
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “Company”) is party to a License Agreement (U.S.), dated as of January 13, 2015, with Grünenthal GmbH (“Grünenthal”) (as amended, the “Grünenthal License”) which the Company assumed pursuant to a Consent Agreement, dated as of January 30, 2020 between the Company, Grünenthal and Assertio Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Consent Agreement”) as part of the Company’s 2020 acquisition of Nucynta E…
Why it matters: JORNAY PM grew 41% in Q2, and management named ADHD growth as a key goal. Another rise would show demand is still growing.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 earnings call, Q3 JORNAY PM revenue is above $46.1 million and prescriptions grow year over year.
Worry ifQ3 JORNAY PM revenue is at or below $46.1 million, or prescriptions fall year over year.
Why it matters: Pain revenue fell 9% in Q2. Nucynta fell 24%, while Belbuca grew 10%. The next report will show if weakness spreads.
Worry ifQ3 pain portfolio revenue is below $140.9 million, or Nucynta revenue falls further year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 pain portfolio revenue reaches at least $140.9 million. Nucynta's year-over-year decline eases from 24%.
Why it matters: AZSTARYS brought in $12.9 million during a partial Q2. Q3 results will show how sales build after the launch and sales team training.
Supportive ifQ3 AZSTARYS revenue is above $12.9 million, with prescriptions growing year over year.
Worry ifQ3 AZSTARYS revenue is at or below $12.9 million, or prescriptions decline year over year.
Why it matters: Collegium reported an October 19 termination notice tied to its Nucynta license. The next filing can show when the change takes effect and what it means for sales.
Watch forA company filing names the end date. It confirms Nucynta supply or license rights continue after the change.
Also watch forA company filing says Nucynta sales or supply must stop. Or it reports a major loss tied to the license ending.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,680 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.