Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.16+6.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.68 → 7.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COLL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of Corium Therapeutics | A supporting condition in Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition finalized. | Intact | Acquisition fails or is reversed | Acquisition completed May 12, 2026 vs mid-2026 target COLL completed the Corium Therapeutics acquisition on May 12, 2026, as disclosed in M&A activity events. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
COLL is a smaller-cap healthcare company with a growth opportunity in its ADHD portfolio and mixed performance in pain treatments. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The evidence points to COLL being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be a little ahead of the outlook. Confidence in that valuation read is low, and no fragility warning is present.
Near term, ADHD growth has been strong: JORNAY PM revenue rose 41% year over year in 2026 Q2, with AZSTARYS adding revenue after its acquisition. Pain portfolio revenue fell 9%, and the Nucynta decline outweighed Belbuca growth. Management raised product revenue guidance after the acquisition, but recent guidance had also been lowered, and a recent material agreement termination adds uncertainty.
A guidance increase next quarter after the earlier cut would support the case that the business has recovered its footing. Continued weakness in job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The key business question is whether ADHD growth can offset ongoing pressure in the pain portfolio.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on ADHD growth and acquisition execution overcoming pain portfolio declines and elevated risk. The evidence is mixed but still supports an intact, mildly favorable long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose from $21.7 million to $30.9 million in one year. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $25 million in next four quarters |
Operating income: $3.698M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20263,698,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $880 million in 2026 | Collegium raised revenue guidance to about $880 million for 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $820 million in FY26 | Revenue: $199.878M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$880 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026199,878,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.50 → $7.26 · observed estimates
$0.86B → $0.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.33 | $834,225,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.33 | $834,225,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.97 | $828,100,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.97 | $828,100,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.50 | $860,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.77 | $828,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.62 | $842,514,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.68 | $850,115,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.65 | $846,546,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.65 | $846,545,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.65 | $846,545,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.65 | $846,545,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.63 | $844,382,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.63 | $844,382,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.63 | $844,382,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.63 | $844,382,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.26 | $844,525,571 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.