Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.53-0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves to at least $30.9 million in Q1 2026: Q2 FY26 operating income $3.8M vs $30.9M target.
Collegium raised revenue guidance to about $880 million for 2026. Sales grew 9% year over year in Q1 2026. Operating income rose from $21.7 million to $30.9 million in one year. The company completed a key acquisition to boost growth.
Revenue growth could slow below 7% next year. Profit gains may stall. Executive departures could hurt execution.
The price is about 51% below our fair value near $74. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth. We see stronger growth and profit gains than the market prices.
Breaks if: Acquisition fails or is reversed
Finalize the acquisition of Corium Therapeutics to enhance growth and product offerings.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
COLL represents a durable compounder in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state reflects a mix of strong recent performance and elevated risks, particularly in the context of broader economic conditions.
The market appears to price COLL as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This indicates that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for improved performance in the coming quarters.
Management has shown robust earnings quality, particularly in the ADHD business, with strong revenue growth. However, the pain portfolio has seen mixed results, which could impact overall performance in the near term.
The thesis hinges on COLL's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter and the performance of sector bellwethers like TEVA and ZTS. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as job growth, will be crucial in determining the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company reported higher adjusted EPS and EBITDA than expected. The capital allocation strategy is reinforced by a $50 million share buyback. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $25 million in next four quarters
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $820 million in FY26
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, COLL's performance will depend on effective execution of management priorities and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.