Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.15-3.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.84 → 1.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.0625 per share | A supporting condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.0625 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.06 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.0625 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20260.0625 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CON is a healthcare growth business with a cyclical element, supported by rising revenue, patient visits, and profitability. Its multi-year view is intact, though management is rated volatile and the evidence behind the thesis is only medium confidence.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, with CON at a modest premium to peers and an expectations gap that is aligned rather than clearly favorable. Weak execution quality is the main fragility noted, but the snapshot does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, recent results show strong momentum: Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year, while operating income and adjusted EBITDA grew faster. Management has raised guidance, and its stated growth and profitability priorities are on track, but a later guidance cut would damage credibility; the recent CEO transition adds uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining growth and profitability without reversing the recent guidance increase. A weakening jobs market could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CON’s long-term thesis is supported by strong recent execution and a favorable sector backdrop, but the stretched valuation leaves less room for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow around $225 million |
| Free cash flow is solid at about $225 million. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $119.545M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$225 million FCF. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026119,545,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 20% | A primary condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~20% operating margin. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 18% in FY26 | Operating margin: 18.52% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~20% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202618.517108 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.61% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20268.610684 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.69 → $1.84 · observed estimates
$2.47B → $2.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.69 | $2,470,740,200 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $2,473,520,900 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $2,473,520,900 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $2,473,520,900 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.74 | $2,478,420,900 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.82 | $2,488,792,820 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.69 | $2,470,643,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.83 | $2,491,161,061 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.83 | $2,493,806,194 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.84 | $2,493,383,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.84 | $2,494,831,455 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.84 | $2,494,831,455 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.84 | $2,494,831,455 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.84 | $2,495,417,686 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.