Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.47-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CON
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 CON trades at 22× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $31 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $30–$42. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $38 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $40.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $31.41 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $71.61 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $5.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$30.00 – $42.00 (median $40.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-11
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 9% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.28/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $11.65 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $35.15 | 12.7 | 3.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $37.64 | 21.3 | 1.76 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $33.24 | 18.7 | 1.77 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $67.98 | 3.8 | 17.90 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $40.82 | 25.7 | 1.59 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $9.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $34.04 | 21.4 | 1.59 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $36.77 | 22.9 | 1.60 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $36.04 | 18.7 | 1.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $77.70 | 3.8 | 20.46 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $49.36 | 25.7 | 1.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $41.16 | 21.4 | 1.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $38.03 | 18.7 | 2.03 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $82.01 | 3.8 | 21.59 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $52.10 | 25.7 | 2.03 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $43.44 | 21.4 | 2.03 | Analyst | high |