Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.47-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CON — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
CEO — Keith Newton: Keith Newton is transitioning from CEO to Executive Chairman, with Matthew DiCanio succeeding him as President and CEO.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and management confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.0625 per share.
Worry ifNo change to the current dividend of $0.0625 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial strength.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend declared for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Watch forA cash dividend declared in Q3 2026 at least equal to $0.0625 per share.
Also watch forNo cash dividend declared in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in Adjusted EBITDA might mean higher costs or less efficiency. This is key for checking operational health.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $110 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $110 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $250 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,897 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Opening new centers is important for Concentra's growth. It helps the company expand.
Supportive ifAt least two new de novo centers opened by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new de novo centers opened by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. A cut could indicate financial stress.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $0.0625 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payout is reduced below $0.0625 per share.
Why it matters: The new CMO's vision will guide Concentra's clinical strategy. This may affect how well they operate and care for patients.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CMO who has a strong track record in occupational health.
Also watch forA delay in choosing a new CMO or picking someone with little experience.
Why it matters: Fewer patient visits may show weaker demand for services.
Worry ifQ3 patient visits growth below 2.6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 patient visits growth at or above 2.6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher guidance shows strong performance and better profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now above $495 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or below $495 million.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth means better efficiency and more profit. This helps the company grow.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Falling Free Cash Flow may show money problems or bad capital management.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $200 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow reported above $200 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio shows better financial health. It helps support future growth.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio falls below 3.0x as reported in Q2 results.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio remains at or above 3.0x.
Why it matters: The new CEO's actions will shape the company's future direction and growth strategy.
Watch forMatt DiCanio may announce new plans or changes in focus.
Also watch forNo major changes or plans are announced after the transition.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 10% would signal a slowdown in Concentra's momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CMO may change the clinical strategy and focus. This could affect results.
Watch forA new Chief Medical Officer will be announced before the year ends.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new Chief Medical Officer by year-end.