Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.15-3.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers
CON — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-08
CFO — Tanner Newton: The filing announces the internal promotion of Tanner Newton to CFO and the transition of the CEO to Executive Chairman, which are planned leadership changes rather than a sudden loss of an executive.
Why it matters: Concentra raised its cash flow outlook to $220M–$240M. Cash flow also rose sharply in Q2.
Supportive ifReported full-year 2026 free cash flow reaches at least $220M and stays within the $220M–$240M range.
Worry ifA new outlook puts full-year free cash flow below $220M, or reported cash flow misses that level.
Why it matters: Q2 visits per day rose 2.6% year over year. More visits can support revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 visits per day rise year over year from Q2's 56,421, and revenue per visit stays above $152.67.
Worry ifQ3 visits per day fall below 56,421, or revenue per visit drops below $152.67.
Why it matters: Concentra raised its 2026 outlook twice. Q3 results will show whether growth stays on track.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 5, Q3 results keep revenue and Adjusted EBITDA on pace for the $2.325B–$2.375B and $485M–$495M full-year ranges.
Worry ifQ3 results or a new outlook put revenue below $2.325B or Adjusted EBITDA below $485M for 2026.
Why it matters: The full-year outlook calls for leverage below 3.0x. Q2 ended at 2.99x, near that limit.
Worry ifA quarter-end report shows net leverage above 3.0x. Or the company raises its year-end leverage outlook above 3.0x.
Less concerning ifQuarter-end net leverage stays below 3.0x. Management keeps its year-end target below 3.0x.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $230 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,332 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Matt DiCanio becomes CEO, and Tanner Newton becomes CFO on Nov. 1. A smooth handoff can keep the stated plan on track.
Watch forThe company confirms both leaders took their new roles on Nov. 1, with no announced delay or change to the transition.
Also watch forThe company says it will delay, replace, or change the planned CEO or CFO transition.