COSMOS HEALTH INC (COSM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.27+2.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - PharmaceuticalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COSM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-20
and exhibit 99.1, attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, whether made before or after the date hereof and irrespective of any general incorporation language in any filings. Forward Looking Statements Certain…
Why it matters: Reaching the $155.8M revenue target by 2027 is crucial for long-term growth. It shows if the company is on track.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue shows strong growth toward the $155.8M target.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue stays flat or drops, moving away from the target.
Why it matters: The company aims to grow in the U.S. market. Revenue trends will indicate success or failure.
Supportive ifRevenue from U.S. operations increases by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. revenue continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: Achieving positive cash flow is critical for the company's financial health. It shows the company can cover its expenses with its revenue.
Supportive ifThe company will show positive cash flow in its next financial update.
Worry ifCash flow stays negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It means the company can run without outside money.
Worry ifOperating cash flow turns positive in Q3 2026. This shows better financial management.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow stays negative in Q3 2026. This shows ongoing financial problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$410 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $986 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,622 loss on $10,000 · 86.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for reaching the $155.8M target by 2027. A rise would indicate progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $17.93M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $17.93M.
Why it matters: Growth in the U.S. market is key for the company's expansion strategy. It indicates whether the company can improve its sales.
Supportive ifU.S. market revenue increases quarter over quarter from the current $17.93M.
Worry ifU.S. market revenue declines further from $17.93M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means the company is getting closer to making money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is better than last quarter. This shows improved cost management and revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is worse or still negative. This shows ongoing problems with operations.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost management. It also means improving profits.
Supportive ifQ3 net income loss narrows to less than $5 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income loss widens beyond $7 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals continued momentum in U.S. expansion and overall business health.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks can help the stock price. They show management trusts the company.
Supportive ifAt least $3 million of the share repurchase program executed by end of Q3.
Worry ifLess than $1 million of the share repurchase program executed by end of Q3.
Why it matters: Lowering debts makes the company more stable. It also boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifTotal liabilities decrease by at least 10% compared to Q2.
Worry ifTotal liabilities increase or decrease by less than 5% compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on U.S. expansion can provide insights into future revenue growth and market strategy.
Watch forManagement announces new U.S. distribution deals or product launches.
Also watch forNo new updates on U.S. market expansion by end of Q3.