Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.43-2.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.58 → 3.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CPF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at or above $0.29 in Q1 2026 | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.29 per share, showing steady capital returns. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.29 in Q1 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.29 dividend per share in Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CPF is a regional financial company with a performance-led, multi-year thesis rather than a turnaround case. The thesis is intact, with recent results strong, but momentum weakened after the latest earnings update.
The valuation is at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to a durable premium rather than a fragile one. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of the evidence; valuation is therefore a meaningful part of the thesis.
Near term, recent results show net income and net interest margin rising from Q1 to Q3, while the efficiency ratio improved from a year earlier. Management has continued to emphasize earnings growth, expense control, and capital returns, though progress on expense management is mixed. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but CPF’s smaller size and a deep miss in its recent history remain cautions.
The multi-year view hinges on CPF sustaining earnings and efficiency improvements without cutting guidance. A shift toward lower interest rates could weigh on the financial sector, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued operating progress, with a premium valuation and interest-rate sensitivity limiting the margin for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is at least $2.86, supporting durable profitability. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $2.86 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.86 EPS for FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20260.88 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income growth to at least $20.7 million in Q1 2026 | is growing net income, which rose to $20.7 million in Q1 2026 from $17.8 million a year earlier. | Intact | net income falls below $20.7 million in Q1 2026 | Net income: $22.776M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $20.7 million net income in Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202622,776,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $26.9 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income also improved to $26.9 million in Q1 2026 from $22.6 million in Q1 2025. | Intact | operating income falls below $26.9 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $30.188M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.9 million operating income in Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202630,188,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.56 → $3.67 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.56 | $316,972,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.56 | $316,972,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.56 | $316,972,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.56 | $317,047,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.56 | $317,047,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.56 | $316,422,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.58 | $316,275,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.58 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $316,260,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.64 | $318,383,780 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.67 | $318,803,780 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.