NEW CANTERBURY PARK HOLDING CORP (CPHC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.87+0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
CPHC — officer change
Dated 2026-03-26
The filing details changes in annual base salaries and the adoption of an Annual Bonus Plan for executive officers.
Why it matters: The company has kept its dividend at $0.07 per share through 2026 Q1. A cut would break that record.
Worry ifCPHC cuts its dividend below $0.07 per share.
Less concerning ifCPHC keeps the dividend at $0.07 per share or raises it.
Why it matters: Operating income rose from $329,083 in 2025 Q4 to $1.06 million in 2026 Q1. A further rise would back the company's stated goal.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is above $1,055,699, the 2026 Q1 level.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is below $329,083, the 2025 Q4 level.
Why it matters: Revenue rose from $12.45 million in 2025 Q4 to $13.51 million in 2026 Q1. Another gain would support the company's stated growth focus.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is above $13.51 million, the 2026 Q1 level.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is at or below $12.45 million, the 2025 Q4 level.
Why it matters: The valuation signal rose 15.5 points, to 42.8. The current value status is expensive, so another rise adds to that concern.
Worry ifThe next reported valuation score is above 42.8, or the value status remains expensive.
Less concerning ifThe next reported valuation score falls below 27.3 and the value status turns neutral or better.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$51 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $190 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $934 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.