NEW CANTERBURY PARK HOLDING CORP (CPHC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.96+0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPHC — officer change
Dated 2026-03-26
The filing details changes in annual base salaries and the adoption of an Annual Bonus Plan for executive officers.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows the company is handling sector challenges. This means success in growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows commitment to shareholder value. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share stays at $0.07 in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases from $0.07 in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $1,055,699 in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $1,055,699 in Q3.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth turns positive, it could signal a recovery. This may benefit the company's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$63 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $232 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,453 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or grows less than 10% year over year.