COUPANG INC (CPNG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.42-3.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPNG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPNG — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-11
Other Events. On June 10, 2026, the Korean Personal Information Protection Commission (the “PIPC”) announced an administrative fine of approximately $278 million for one of Coupang, Inc.’s (the “Company’s” “our,” “us,” or “we”) Korean subsidiaries, Coupang Corp. (“Coupang Corp.”), relating to the previously disclosed November 2025 data incident. The PIPC also announced a separate administrative fine of approximately $132 million, unrelated to the November 2025 data incident, alleging that Cou…
Why it matters: Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA fell 42% in Q2. A recovery would ease pressure on total earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA rises above $382 million. Its margin tops 5.1%.
Worry ifQ3 Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA is $382 million or less, or its margin falls below 5.1%.
Why it matters: Product Commerce is Coupang’s largest segment. Q2 revenue grew 1% year over year, while active customers rose 3%.
Watch forQ3 Product Commerce revenue grows at least 1% year over year and active customers exceed 24.7 million.
Also watch forQ3 Product Commerce revenue falls year over year or active customers drop below 24.7 million.
Why it matters: Q2 included about $410 million in Korean fines. Even without them, the company had a $146 million operating loss.
Watch forQ3 adjusted operating income is above negative $146 million. This means a smaller loss than Q2 without fines.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted operating income is negative $146 million or lower. This means no improvement from Q2 without fines.
Why it matters: This segment grew revenue 20% in Q2, but still lost $219 million in adjusted EBITDA. Lower losses would show progress toward profit.
Supportive ifQ3 Developing Offerings adjusted EBITDA loss is below $219 million. Revenue grows from a year earlier.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss reaches $219 million or more, or segment revenue falls year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $478 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,721 loss on $10,000 · 57.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow fell 79% year over year. Trailing-year free cash flow also dropped to $105 million.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow exceeds $51 million, and trailing-year free cash flow rises above $105 million.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is $51 million or less, or trailing-year free cash flow falls below $105 million.