Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Partners, Inc. (CPRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.490.00%
Close 2026-07-16 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPRX — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-07-16
Changes in Control of Registrant. The disclosures under the Introductory Note, Item 3.01, Item 3.03,
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management trusts the finances.
Watch forManagement shares news about new buybacks or updates on the $200 million plan.
Also watch forNo updates or new buybacks are shared. This suggests a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand for Catalyst's products and good market plans.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 total revenue exceeds $149.4 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 total revenue falls below $149.4 million.
Why it matters: News on the share buyback shows management trusts the company's future.
Supportive ifCatalyst will announce new repurchases of at least $50 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or repurchases are announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The acquisition is key for growth. Progress signals Catalyst's expansion strategy is working.
Supportive ifA press release that confirms the deal is done or that approvals are granted.
Worry ifNews about delays or problems in the deal process.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$16 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,391 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help Catalyst grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifCatalyst Pharmaceuticals will say when the merger is done.
Worry ifMerger fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Settling this case keeps Catalyst's products unique and helps its revenue.
Supportive ifNo new patent cases are reported after the deal with Hetero USA.
Worry ifNew patent litigation starts or old issues stay unresolved past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Solving this case will help Catalyst keep its market position and product rights.
Supportive ifAll FIRDAPSE patent cases are settled with no new issues.
Worry ifNew cases come up or old cases take longer. This could hurt FIRDAPSE's market position.
Why it matters: The result will affect FIRDAPSE's market position. It will also impact its revenue.
Watch forThe patent case ends in Catalyst's favor. This allows them to keep market exclusivity.
Also watch forThe case ends badly for Catalyst. This will let generic drugs compete with FIRDAPSE.
Why it matters: The end of this issue will clarify Catalyst's market position. It will protect its revenue.
Worry ifFinal settlement terms are good and stop generics from entering before the patent ends.
Less concerning ifSettlement terms let generics enter early or more lawsuits occur.
Why it matters: The acquisition will expand Catalyst's market reach and product portfolio. It may enhance growth potential in rare diseases.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q3 2026 as planned. There are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal has big regulatory issues or is delayed past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Continued growth in these products is crucial for overall revenue. It reflects market acceptance and demand.
Supportive ifFIRDAPSE and AGAMREE revenue grows over 20% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from FIRDAPSE and AGAMREE declines or grows less than 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.