Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
CRA International, Inc. (CRAI)
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$202.94+4.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.56 → 9.56 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRAI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain non-GAAP EBITDA margin near 12.5% in 2026 | A primary condition in CRA International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 12% to 13%. | Intact | EBITDA margin falls below 12% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Non-GAAP EBITDA increased 15.3% to $26.8 million, or 12.7% of revenue, compared with $23.3 million, or 12.4% of revenue, in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.” “For full-year fiscal 2026, on a constant currency basis relative to fiscal 2025, we expect revenue in the range of $805 million to $820 million and non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.0% to 13.0%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CRAI is a professional-services business with a growth and execution-led long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and the evidence supports only medium confidence.
The valuation is slightly above peers, and the expectations gap is modest. The evidence flags that this premium may not be justified given fragile earnings quality and weak execution; valuation expectations are otherwise aligned with the fundamental outlook.
Near term, revenue execution has been constructive: first-half revenue grew 12%, and management raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance. The margin outlook is less firm, with first-half margin below the prior-year level, though management has reaffirmed its 2026 range; recent results have included both an earnings miss and a later beat.
The multi-year view depends on CRAI delivering its raised revenue guidance while maintaining its margin range. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers EFX, BAH, and FCN could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
CRAI’s growth thesis remains intact, but elevated risk, fragile earnings quality, and a valuation premium make execution and sector signals important over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain revenue near $795 million in 2026 | CRA International keeps revenue near $795 million in 2026. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $785 million in FY26 | Revenue: $210.815M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$795 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026210,815,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand share repurchase program by $55 million | The company expands its share buyback by $55 million. | Intact | No material share repurchase program expansion announced in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.63 → $9.56 · observed estimates
$0.84B → $0.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.63 | $838,351,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.56 | $846,996,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.56 | $847,002,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.