CRA International, Inc. (CRAI)
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$170.91-0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain non-GAAP EBITDA margin near 12.5% in 2026: EBITDA margin 11.1% vs 12% target.
CRA International keeps revenue near $795 million in 2026. Profit margins stay around 12.5%. The company expands its share buyback by $55 million. Recent record quarters support steady growth.
Margins face pressure from cost headwinds. Earnings missed recently, showing risks to profit targets. Market headwinds in consulting could slow growth.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $140. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance. Our view sees risks to margin but steady revenue.
Breaks if: EBITDA margin falls below 12% in FY26
Management reaffirmed non-GAAP EBITDA margin guidance in the range of 12.0% to 13.0% for full-year fiscal 2026, emphasizing margin discipline.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP EBITDA margin was 12.2% in first half of 2026, slightly below 13.0% in first half 2025. Management consistently reaffirmed 12%-13% margin guidance for 2026, showing stable margin discipline and delivery.
“We are reaffirming our profit margin guidance... non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.0% to 13.0%.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance... non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.0% to 13.0%.”
“We are raising our revenue guidance and increasing the lower end of our profit guidance... non-GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 12.3% to 13.0%.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $785 million in FY26
Breaks if: No material share repurchase program expansion announced in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious approach to a smaller-cap company in the Industrials sector. The current thesis state is intact, with recent performance showing some positive signs, but risks remain elevated due to sector headwinds.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting a low level of execution quality. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating modest improvements in performance.
Management has reaffirmed revenue guidance, showing a positive trajectory with a 12% revenue increase year-over-year. However, the non-GAAP EBITDA margin is slightly below last year's level, indicating some challenges in maintaining profitability.
The thesis hinges on CRAI's ability to maintain or improve guidance in the upcoming earnings call. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like EFX, BAH, and FCN will be crucial in determining the overall momentum for CRAI.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CRAI's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth expectations. Management's expansion objective is reinforced by broad-based practice growth. There are no new threats affecting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.