Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Corebridge Financial (CRBG)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.24-5.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.77 → 5.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRBG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return $1.4 billion to shareholders in 2026-Q1 | It returned $1.4 billion to shareholders in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $1 billion in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector business with a mixed execution story, rather than a clear durable-growth case. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort despite two recent earnings beats.
The valuation evidence points to CRBG being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap. The overall pricing tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations already embedded in the valuation.
Near term, financial performance is weak and earnings quality is loss-making, though earnings beats were recorded in May and August 2026. Management has returned capital consistently, while the Equitable merger remains in progress and customer digitization lacks clear quantitative proof; the next call’s guidance is a key near-term risk.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on completing the Equitable merger and delivering integration, alongside evidence that operations can improve. Near term, guidance cuts or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support financial-sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, CRBG has some support from capital returns and merger progress, but weak results and uneven execution leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share should reach $4.42 in 2026. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $4.00 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $3.22 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.42 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20263.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete merger with Equitable | The merger with Equitable will improve scale and cash flow. | Intact | Merger is delayed beyond FY26 or cancelled | Merger targeted for year-end 2026 close vs FY26 deadline Corebridge targets year-end close of Equitable deal and reiterates $500M run-rate expense saves by end of 2028. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 10% per year | A primary condition in Corebridge Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.77 → $5.71 · observed estimates
$21.88B → $20.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.77 | $21,882,859,030 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.77 | $21,882,859,030 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.78 | $21,900,158,561 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.77 | $21,900,158,561 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.77 | $21,900,158,561 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.77 | $21,900,158,561 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.77 | $21,900,158,561 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.75 | $21,906,593,460 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.76 | $21,858,019,270 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.76 | $21,858,019,270 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.76 | $21,870,112,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.76 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.76 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.77 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.77 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.77 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.77 | $21,827,546,061 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.77 | $21,671,515,544 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.77 | $21,653,313,955 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.77 | $21,664,647,289 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.77 | $21,664,647,289 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.77 | $21,664,647,289 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.77 | $21,664,647,289 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.78 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.78 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.78 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.77 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.77 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.77 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.77 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.77 | $21,417,362,054 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.74 | $21,147,044,692 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.73 | $20,944,489,137 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.73 | $20,944,489,137 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.73 | $20,944,489,137 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.74 | $20,944,489,137 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.74 | $20,944,489,137 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.72 | $20,974,159,325 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.72 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.72 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.72 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.72 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.73 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.73 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.73 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.73 | $20,974,155,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.73 | $20,973,745,492 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.73 | $20,973,749,014 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.73 | $20,973,749,017 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.71 | $20,723,106,043 | 10 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.