Cricut, Inc. (CRCT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.54-5.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: A slowdown in subscriber growth could indicate weakening demand for the platform. This would impact future revenue potential.
Worry ifPaid subscribers grow less than 3% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPaid subscribers grow by 3% or more in Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow could impact future investments and shareholder returns. It reflects the company's financial health.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $50 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays above $50 million.
Why it matters: More Active Users may mean better engagement and growth for the platform.
Supportive ifActive Users rise above 6 million. This shows user growth and engagement.
Worry ifActive Users drop or stay under 6 million. This shows possible user retention issues.
Why it matters: This growth shows that the company's platform-first strategy works. It shows strong user engagement and chances for more revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 platform revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 platform revenue growth is less than or equal to 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $465 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,420 loss on $10,000 · 44.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in paid subscribers shows that more users are engaging with Cricut's services. This supports revenue growth and platform strength.
Supportive ifPaid subscribers increase to more than 3.1 million.
Worry ifPaid subscribers remain at or drop below 3.1 million.
Why it matters: If revenue stays steady or goes up, it means the platform strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding the current -2% decline.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline year over year, worsening from the current -2%.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue may show problems with demand or execution. This worries investors about growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines more than 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines less than 9% year over year or shows growth.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in net income could mean more serious profitability problems.
Worry ifNet income declines less than 15% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income declines more than 15% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in net income raises worries about making money. It may show problems with cash flow and efficiency.
Worry ifNet income remains above $39.1 million.
Less concerning ifNet income falls below $39.1 million.