America's Car-Mart Inc/TX (CRMT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.40+8.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
CRMT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As disclosed in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed on June 25, 2026 (the “June 25th Current Report”), America's Car-Mart, Inc. (the "Company") entered into the First Amendment and Limited Waiver to Credit and Guaranty Agreement (the "Amendment") with Silver Point Finance, LLC, as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent (the "Agent"), and the lenders party thereto (collectively, the "Lenders"), amending and providing certain limited waivers under…
Why it matters: A large drop in revenue shows ongoing problems and market pressures.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q1 2027 declines more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A notable drop in SG&A would show effective cost management and alignment with sales.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease by more than 15% year over year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase or stay flat year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good money management. It also means a stronger business position.
Supportive ifUnrestricted cash increases to over $60 million by Q1 2027.
Worry ifUnrestricted cash remains below $50 million by Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving its financial health after a tough year.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue went up from last quarter. This means recovery.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue went down or losses were bigger than expected.
Why it matters: The outcome of this evaluation could impact future financing and growth plans.
Supportive ifA public announcement about a new partnership or deal from the review.
Worry ifNo updates or a statement that no good options were found.
Why it matters: An increase in net charge-offs would show worse credit quality and stress on customers.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are more than 30% of average finance receivables in Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are less than 25% of average finance receivables in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Completing the financing review will make the company's future clearer. It will also affect cash flow.
Supportive ifThe strategic financing review will be completed by Q3 2027.
Worry ifNo progress on the financing review is reported by Q3 2027.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows ongoing money problems and management issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported at less than $228.8M, which is a 20% decline from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: These actions are meant to cut costs. Their effectiveness will show if the company can stabilize.
Worry ifMore dealership closures or job cuts are announced. This shows ongoing money problems.
Less concerning ifNo new closures or layoffs are announced. This means cost cuts are not enough.
Why it matters: Keeping key employees is important for stability during this change.
Supportive ifA report shows employee turnover rates go down after the retention program starts.
Worry ifMore key employees are leaving, even with the retention program.
Why it matters: This evaluation is key for financial recovery. It shows how management plans to improve the business.
Supportive ifA financing or restructuring deal is announced. This helps cash flow or lowers debt.
Worry ifNo news or more delays in the evaluation process.
Why it matters: This report shows how the company is doing. It also talks about any changes in strategy.
Watch forThe earnings report shows profits returning or losses going down a lot.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. It also shows that financial numbers are getting worse.
Why it matters: The review's result will affect how the company manages money and runs.
Watch forAn announcement confirms good terms or extensions to the credit deal.
Also watch forA report of defaults or bad changes to the credit agreement terms.
Why it matters: Staying smart with spending is key to handling money stress.
Worry ifManagement says they will keep spending plans even with credit problems.
Less concerning ifManagement reports more problems with spending plans or defaults.
Why it matters: A big drop in sales would show problems with customer demand and cash flow.
Worry ifSales volume for Q1 2027 drops more than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifSales volume for Q1 2027 remains stable or increases year over year.
Why it matters: Getting new financing is key for restoring lending ability and cash flow.
Supportive ifNews of a new warehouse credit facility or big progress in talks.
Worry ifNo updates or setbacks in securing new financing within the next quarter.
Why it matters: More closures would show ongoing problems with managing costs and cash flow.
Worry ifNews of more dealership closures beyond the current 42.
Less concerning ifNo new dealership closures announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$438 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $999 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,445 loss on $10,000 · 94.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.