Carpenter Technology (CRS)
NYSEIndustrialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$475.33+1.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CRS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
President and Chief Executive Officer and Director — Brian J. Malloy: The sudden unexpected death of the CEO and President.
Why it matters: If growth is over 10%, Carpenter Technology is doing well in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows strong cash flow and good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported at or above $350 million for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $325 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks mean management thinks the company is valuable. They believe in its future.
Supportive ifManagement plans to repurchase at least $45 million in shares next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are reported. This raises concerns about cash flow or value.
Why it matters: This leadership change may affect company plans and results. Investors will watch how it changes operations.
Watch forBrian Malloy successfully carries out plans that keep or boost operating income.
Also watch forThe transition may cause problems or a drop in performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,556 loss on $10,000 · 25.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If they reach over $200M, it shows they manage costs and run well.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $200M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains below $180M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in bookings shows strong demand and customer trust in the aerospace supply chain.
Supportive ifBookings for Aerospace and Defense rise for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifBookings for Aerospace and Defense drop.
Why it matters: Aerospace and Defense is a key market for Carpenter. Continued growth signals strong demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifAerospace and Defense net sales, without surcharge, grow over 15% from last year.
Worry ifAerospace and Defense net sales drop from last year.
Why it matters: If this guidance is met or exceeded, it shows strong demand and good cost control.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 operating income is at least $200 million.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 operating income is below $195 million.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show they have good cash flow and care about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.2 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.2 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan might change how Carpenter Technology performs and operates.
Watch forThe new CEO announces a strategic plan that boosts revenue or operating income.
Also watch forThe new CEO's strategy leads to a decline in revenue or operating income.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback program shows that management believes in the company's value. It also shows they trust its cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach $400 million by fiscal year-end.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks stay below $300 million by fiscal year-end.
Why it matters: Updates that show the project is on track suggest good capital use and growth.
Watch forManagement says the brownfield project is on time. It is also within budget.
Also watch forManagement reports delays with the brownfield project. There are also budget problems.