Contango Silver & Gold, Inc. (CTGO)
AMEXMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.77-1.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTGO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 1, 2026, CORE Alaska, LLC (the “Borrower”), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Contango Silver & Gold Inc. (the “Company”), entered into Consent No. 7 and Amendment No. 13 (the “Amendment”) to that certain Credit and Guarantee Agreement, dated as of May 17, 2023 (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Borrower, the Company and the other guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto from time to time (the “Lenders”),…
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show that the materials sector is recovering. This could make investors feel better about Contango Silver & Gold.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1% for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens beyond -1%.
Why it matters: Having unhedged exposure is important to gain from rising gold prices. It shows management's focus.
Watch forManagement reports they have full exposure to rising gold prices in Q3.
Also watch forManagement did not get full exposure to gold prices in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition is key for growth. It shows management's ability to execute on plans.
Supportive ifThe company says the Lucky Shot project acquisition is done.
Worry ifThe buying process is late or stopped.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition is key for Contango's gold production. It will also boost their assets.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done. Ownership is now with Contango.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond July 1, 2026, or fails to close.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $766 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,520 loss on $10,000 · 55.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in cash costs will affect how much money the company makes and its finances.
Worry ifManagement revises cash costs guidance to above $2,000 per ounce.
Less concerning ifManagement maintains or lowers cash costs guidance below $1,900 per ounce.
Why it matters: Higher cash costs would hurt profits and financial options. This worries investors.
Worry ifCash costs reported for Q2 exceed $2,000 per ounce.
Less concerning ifCash costs are under $2,000 per ounce. This shows better cost control.
Why it matters: Higher gold prices can boost revenues. This aligns with management's goal for unhedged exposure.
Supportive ifGold prices rise above $2,200 per ounce.
Worry ifGold prices fall below $1,800 per ounce.
Why it matters: Production results will show if Contango is on track to meet its 2026 guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 production from Manh Choh exceeds 11,000 gold equivalent ounces.
Worry ifQ3 production from Manh Choh falls below 11,000 gold equivalent ounces.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows financial health. It is crucial for future investments.
Supportive ifManagement reports positive free cash flow in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Cash flows from the JV impact Contango's financial health and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash distributions from Peak Gold JV exceed $9 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash distributions from Peak Gold JV fall below $9 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Completion will show they are ready for more drilling and possible production.
Supportive ifUnderground work reaches 830 meters as planned.
Worry ifDevelopment stalls or falls short of the 830-meter target.
Why it matters: New assay results will show the quality and consistency of gold veins.
Watch forNew assay results show grades above 50 g/t Au from surface drilling.
Also watch forNew assay results show grades below 10 g/t Au from surface drilling.
Why it matters: This estimate is important for future plans and how much can be produced.
Supportive ifThe new Mineral Resource estimate will come out in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe new Mineral Resource estimate is pushed back past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A strong cash position helps ongoing projects. It lowers financial risk and shows good resource management.
Supportive ifCash position is above $80 million after Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash position falls below $80 million after Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This program is important for updating mineral resource estimates. It helps with future planning.
Supportive ifThe 40,000-meter drilling program is completed and results are published.
Worry ifThe drilling program is late or results are much worse than expected.
Why it matters: Managing costs is crucial for profitability. High costs can hurt cash flow and margins.
Worry ifManagement reports cash costs and all-in sustaining costs below $1,000 per ounce.
Less concerning ifCosts are over $1,200 per ounce. This shows poor cost management.