Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cytek Biosciences, Inc. (CTKB)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.40-8.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTKB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit above $21.3M in Q1 | A supporting condition in Cytek Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit rises above $21.3M quarterly. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $21.3M quarterly in 2026 | Gross profit: $31.206M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit rises above $21.3M quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202631,206,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an elevated-risk, loss-making growth business, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: management has made some progress on recurring revenue and instrument placements, but recent financial performance is weak and below its industry cohort.
CTKB is expensive versus peers, with a 1.36 premium and a valuation assessment that says expectations are justified. The expectations gap is negative, while the suggested driver is a re-rating, meaning a change in how the market values the business; the evidence does not show a low-expectations setup.
Near term, execution risk remains meaningful: CTKB has a run of earnings misses, a 40% estimated miss probability, and a recent earnings miss despite a guidance increase. For the multi-year view, revenue guidance calls for modest growth from 2025, while the installed base and recurring-revenue share have grown; delivery remains mixed overall.
The main company-specific test is whether CTKB reaches its 2026 revenue guidance without reversing the recent increase, which could damage management credibility. Weaker jobs data could add pressure on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on improving execution and continued growth in recurring revenue, but weak results, elevated risk, and an expensive peer comparison leave little room for disappointment. The evidence supports a watchful, mixed long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income from -$18.5M in Q1 |
| A primary condition in Cytek Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$18.5M in Q1 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$18.5M in 2026 |
Operating income: $-8.423M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$18.5M in Q1 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-8,423,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““This broad-based execution positions us well for 2026, where our priorities will continue to focus on the growth of our high-margin recurring revenue lines, accelerating the adoption of our instrument platforms, advancing a pipeline of innovative new products, and delivering profitable, durable growth in the large cell analysis market.”” “We believe our investments in products, people, and operations position Cytek well for the remainder of 2026 and the long-term opportunity ahead.”” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $205M to $212M | A primary condition in Cytek Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$208.5M. | Improving | Annual revenue falls below $205M in 2026 | Revenue: $53.229M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$208.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202653,229,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Outlook Cytek Biosciences is maintaining the midpoint of its revenue outlook for the full year 2026 and narrowing the range to $208 million to $211 million, assuming no change in current foreign currency exchange rates.” “Recent Highlights • Total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $44.1 million, representing a 6% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025 • Service revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $15.4 million, representing a 15% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025 • Total recurring revenue, comprised of service and reagent revenues, reached $18.4 million in the first quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.20 → $-0.26 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.27 | $222,771,299 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.27 | $222,771,299 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.27 | $222,771,299 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.20 | $222,671,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.27 | $222,771,299 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.27 | $222,771,299 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.20 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.07 | $223,237,290 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.07 | $223,237,290 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.07 | $223,237,290 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.07 | $223,237,290 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.07 | $223,237,290 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.26 | $223,046,300 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.25 | $223,237,289 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $223,212,288 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.26 | $222,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.