Castellum Inc (CTM)
AMEXInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.62+3.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 209.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 203.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Castellum, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing second quarter and first half 2026 financial results. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Getting new contracts over $50 million would prove Castellum's growth plan and boost revenue. It shows that the market trusts them.
Supportive ifNew contracts worth over $50 million were announced.
Worry ifNo significant new contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Winning specific task orders will show Castellum's ability to execute on its new contract. This could lead to more revenue and growth.
Supportive ifAt least two task orders awarded under the LIIS CMDS MAC contract within the next six months.
Worry ifNo task orders awarded within the next six months.
Why it matters: A stable backlog means strong future revenue. It shows Castellum can keep getting work.
Supportive ifBacklog remains above $270 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $270 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is managing costs well. It also shows it is working efficiently.
Supportive ifGross margin increases above 34% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines below 34% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $669 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,879 loss on $10,000 · 58.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It shows a shift from losses to profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than -$698M. This shows ongoing improvement.
Worry ifOperating income is worse than -$698M. This shows problems in cost management.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue figure shows Castellum's growth strategy is working well. It confirms strong demand and effective contract wins.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $14.3B, indicating strong growth from new contracts.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $14.3B, suggesting growth is slowing or not materializing.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may signal broader challenges for Castellum. This could worsen its financial situation.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Castellum can control costs. This helps them make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to a loss of less than $500,000 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens to a loss greater than $700,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in Adjusted EBITDA shows better cost control and efficiency. It shows the effect of investments.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA improves from $0.03 million in Q2 to above $0.4 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA goes down more in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow supports financial stability and growth. It shows Castellum is managing its resources well.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive. This shows strong financial health.
Worry ifCash from operations is negative. This raises worries about how finances are managed.
Why it matters: Winning task orders will show Castellum can use its new contract to grow.
Supportive ifCastellum wins its first task order under the Navy contract within six months.
Worry ifIf no task orders are awarded in six months, it raises worries about contracts.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows that Castellum is financially healthy. It helps their growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows good cost control and better operations. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifOperating income will turn positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships can expand Castellum's market reach and capabilities. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new strategic partnership in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new strategic partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key for Castellum's long-term strategy. It will show if the company can keep expanding.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 0% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: The NAVAIR contract is a major part of Castellum's growth strategy. Its performance will show if the company can sustain revenue growth.
Supportive ifRevenue growth from the NAVAIR contract exceeds 10% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifRevenue from the NAVAIR contract declines or does not grow in the next quarterly report.