Castellum Inc (CTM)
AMEXInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.47-3.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 120.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 113.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 29 industry peers
CTM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Castellum, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing second quarter and first half 2026 financial results. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 34% from 36% a year earlier. A return to 36% would show progress toward higher-margin work.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is at least 36%, above Q2's 34%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin stays below 34%, or falls further from Q2's 34%.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was near zero as the company paid for growth efforts. A rise would show those costs are easing or bringing in more work.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is higher than Q2's reported $0.03 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at or below $0.03 million, or turns negative.
Why it matters: Castellum said it expects to recognize about 16% of its $271.7 million backlog within 12 months. Reported revenue can show whether that plan is on track.
Watch forWithin 12 months, reported revenue from the June 30 backlog is at least 16% of $271.7 million, or about $43.5 million.
Also watch forWithin 12 months, reported revenue from the June 30 backlog is below $43.5 million.
Why it matters: Only $1.1 million of the change was funded at announcement. More funded work would turn part of the larger ceiling into active work.
Supportive ifA company release or filing reports more funding beyond the initial $1.1 million for the NAVAIR change.
Worry ifNo added funding is reported by March 2027, or the funded work is delayed beyond its stated completion date.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,149 loss on $10,000 · 61.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management said 2026 revenue would set a record. Q2 revenue was flat year over year, so Q3 tests whether growth picked up.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $13.9 million, the Q2 2026 level, and above Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is at or below $13.9 million, or below Q3 2025.