CytomX Therapeutics Inc (CTMX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04

$2.35+7.80%

Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CytomX Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTMX yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce operating loss by at least $5M per quarter	The company improved its operating loss by $8.26M recently.	Intact	operating loss fails to improve by $5M QoQ	Operating income: $-23.781M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce operating loss by >=$5M QoQ. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-23,781,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth above 5% quarterly	A primary condition in CytomX Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% QoQ revenue growth.	Broken	quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% QoQ	Revenue growth: -92.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% QoQ revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-92.400043 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance collaboration with Regeneron on bispecific cancer therapies	It has a strong partnership with Regeneron to develop cancer therapies.	Intact	partnership with Regeneron ends or stalls materially	Qualitative: Active collaboration confirmed via 2026-06-03 amendment CTMX amended its Collaboration and License Agreement with Regeneron on 2026-06-03, confirming continued strategic partnership activity. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.46

$-0.49 → $-0.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.03B

$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-25	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-26	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-27	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-28	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-29	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-30	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-31	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-01	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-02	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-03	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-04	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0
2026-11-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce operating loss by at least $5M per quarterOperating income: $-23.781M
Sustain revenue growth above 5% quarterlyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CytomX Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-development business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has advanced Varseta-M and expanded its Regeneron collaboration, while recent financial performance remains weak.

What's priced into CytomX Therapeutics Inc

CTMX is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence flags that premium as difficult to justify given weak execution quality. The expectations gap is elevated, though confidence in the valuation model is low, so the evidence does not show clearly what specific future results the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: the company reported a recent earnings beat, but its recent financial performance still sits well below its industry cohort, and the next print carries elevated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, completing Varseta-M Phase 1 dose optimization and planning a registrational study for the first half of 2027 mark clinical progress; cash and investments have declined modestly, while management expects runway into the second half of 2028.

What CytomX Therapeutics Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on Varseta-M advancing toward the planned registrational study and the expanded Regeneron collaboration producing further progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strength among Healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening employment data is a risk flagged in the evidence.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, CTMX combines clinical and partnership milestones with weak recent performance, elevated risk, and a premium valuation that the evidence describes as difficult to justify. The central question is whether execution improves enough to support that premium. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.46

$-0.49 → $-0.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.03B

$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$-0.50	$34,255,933	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$-0.46	$30,368,636	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-25	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-26	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-27	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-28	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-29	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-30	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-10-31	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-01	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-02	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-03	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4
2026-11-04	$-0.46	$30,408,636	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings