CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.01-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRE
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 CTRE trades at 20× p/ffo — 1.5× the 13× p/ffo peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $29 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $43–$47. Note: our $29 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($43–$47). Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $38, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $44.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $78.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $91.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $24.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$43.00 – $47.00 (median $44.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-09-01
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $26.95 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $28.68 | 15.6 | 1.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $26.16 | 13.2 | 1.98 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $9.34 | 3.8 | 2.44 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $22.31 | 13.2 | 1.69 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $43.61 | 15.6 | 2.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $39.79 | 13.2 | 3.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $9.94 | 3.8 | 2.60 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $57.68 | 15.6 | 3.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $52.63 | 13.2 | 3.99 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $10.35 | 3.8 | 2.70 | Analyst | medium |