CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.01-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTRE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabi…
Why it matters: Maintaining strong net income growth shows effective cost management. It indicates the company is on track with its financial goals.
Supportive ifNet income growth reported above 15% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth is important for the company's health and investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $89 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 falls below $80 million.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.39 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.39 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: A payout ratio above this level may mean less cash for growth investments.
Worry ifDividend payout ratio reported above 81% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDividend payout ratio reported at or below 81% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on financial performance and guidance for the rest of the year.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income and FFO growth consistent with or above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income and FFO growth below guidance.
Why it matters: High investment activity shows strong growth potential and good use of capital.
Supportive ifInvestment activity was over $1 billion in Q3 2026. This shows strong interest in the market.
Worry ifInvestment activity was below $800 million in Q3 2026. This indicates less interest in the market.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases above $90 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below $90 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, profits may weaken. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income per share reported below $1.53 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income per share reported at or above $1.53 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improved cash from operations would support CareTrust's ability to invest and grow. This is key for long-term health.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows over 70% growth.
Worry ifCash from operations stays under 66% growth.
Why it matters: A rising ratio may mean more debt and possible financial risk.
Worry ifNet debt to EBITDA ratio exceeds 1.01x.
Less concerning ifNet debt to EBITDA ratio remains at or below 1.01x.
Why it matters: Keeping 100% collection rates is key for stable revenue and growth.
Supportive ifCareTrust reports it continues to collect 100% of rent and interest.
Worry ifCollection rates drop below 95% for any quarter.
Why it matters: A shift in the sector from maturing to growth could benefit CareTrust. It would indicate a better environment for revenue growth.
Watch forThe sector shows revenue growth is speeding up again.
Also watch forThe sector is still declining. This shows it is in a mature phase.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows CareTrust's strong earnings potential. It reflects ongoing operational strength.
Supportive ifNet income per share remains above $1.53.
Worry ifNet income per share falls below $1.53.
Why it matters: Changes in debt strategy could impact liquidity and future growth plans.
Watch forNew debt issuance is announced. This improves cash flow or lowers interest rates.
Also watch forDebt issuance is announced. This raises leverage above 0.7x debt to EBITDA.
Why it matters: If growth goes over 5%, it shows strong revenue recovery. This helps management's growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong revenue growth. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifNormalized FFO guidance for Q3 exceeds $2.06 per share.
Worry ifNormalized FFO guidance for Q3 is below $2.03 per share.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth shows strong operations and good cost management.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 15% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifNet income growth is below 10% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher investment activity shows strong growth and good use of capital.
Supportive ifTotal investment activity will be over $1.5 billion by the end of the year.
Worry ifTotal investment activity will be below $1.5 billion by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Keeping this ratio shows strong cash flow management. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Watch forDividend payout ratio is about 76% of Normalized FAD.
Also watch forDividend payout ratio falls below 73% of Normalized FAD.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,428 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.