CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$37.18-2.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
CTRE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2026, CTR Partnership, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”), as the borrower, CareTrust REIT, Inc. (the “Company”), as guarantor, CareTrust GP, LLC, and certain of the Operating Partnership’s wholly owned subsidiaries entered into a fourth amended and restated credit and guaranty agreement with KeyBank National Association, as administrative agent, an issuing bank and swingline lender, and the lenders party thereto (the “ Credit Agreeme…
Why it matters: The October update raised full-year guidance. Q3 results will show whether earnings stay on that path.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report keeps 2026 Normalized FFO per share guidance at or above the October range midpoint of $2.075.
Worry ifThe Q3 report cuts 2026 Normalized FFO per share guidance below $2.06.
Why it matters: These homes are a key part of the new UK care business. Delays or missed approvals could slow its growth.
Supportive ifThe remaining 21 homes close as they finish and receive approval during 2027.
Worry ifClosings slip beyond 2027, or homes fail to receive required approvals.
Why it matters: The first move to SHOP will test CareTrust's plan to run these homes with Crystal Care. Management cites a mid- to high-7% year-one yield.
Watch forAt least one home moves to SHOP by Q4 2027, with a reported year-one yield in the mid- to high-7% range.
Also watch forNo home moves to SHOP by Q4 2027, or reported yield falls below the mid-7% range.
Why it matters: CareTrust made about $1.6 billion in investments during Q3 and since. The new credit agreement is a test of its funding capacity.
Watch forA company filing shows the changed credit line leaves enough funds for announced investments. Debt costs do not rise much.
Also watch forA filing shows less credit, higher borrowing costs, or new limits. These may slow planned investments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.