CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.01-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
CareTrust REIT grows revenue strongly, with a 27% increase from $112.5M to $142.8M in recent quarters. Profit remains solid, with net income rising from $68.5M to $80.2M. The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to about $1.51 per share. Cash flow challenges exist but are being managed.
Cash from operations declined from $120.9M to $90.4M, signaling potential cash flow issues. The company missed recent earnings estimates and has a high valuation with a PE of 27.9 versus peers at 13.8. Revenue growth may slow given the soft guidance posture.
The market prices in about 21% revenue growth and a premium valuation, with price about 18% above our fair value near $35. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism. We see growth but also risks in cash flow and valuation.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $90 million per quarter
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support investments and dividends.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CTRE represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and net income growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but confidence has shifted to medium due to execution concerns.
The market appears to price in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, which is not fully justified given the company's recent performance. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the stock may be seen as slightly expensive compared to peers.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth, maintain strong net income, and enhance cash from operations. Despite a low probability of missing expectations, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds some risk.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to avoid cutting guidance after recent increases, as this could damage credibility. Additionally, favorable movements in interest rates or strong performance from sector peers could provide positive momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company raised its revenue growth guidance. This suggests strong revenue potential. However, it was downgraded by RBC Capital. This downgrade may hurt investor sentiment and valuation.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased from $67.2 million in 2024-Q3 to $120.9 million in 2025-Q4, then stabilized around $90 million in early 2026. Management emphasizes strong liquidity and capital access to fund investments, showing delivery with stable cash flow supporting growth.
“Liquidity and capital access remain in great shape, giving us flexibility to keep funding investments.”
“Liquidity and access to capital remain strong, providing flexibility to continue funding investment activity.”
“Strong liquidity with $100 million cash on hand and $372 million gross proceeds pending from unsettled equity forward contracts.”
“Focus on enhancing cash from operations to support growth.”
Breaks if: Net income falls below $80 million per quarter
Sustain and grow net income attributable to CareTrust through operational efficiency and portfolio performance.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income attributable to CareTrust increased from $65.8 million in 2025-Q1 to $89.0 million in 2026-Q2, with net income per diluted share rising from $0.35 to $0.38. Updated 2026 guidance projects net income per share between $1.53 and $1.56. Management is delivering sustained growth in net income.
“Updated guidance for 2026 projecting net income attributable to CareTrust of approximately $1.53 to $1.56 per share.”
“Updated guidance for 2026 projecting net income attributable to CareTrust of approximately $1.49 to $1.53 per share.”
“Guidance for 2026 projecting net income attributable to CareTrust of approximately $1.45 to $1.50 per share.”
“Maintaining strong net income through operational performance.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $442 million in FY26
Continue to grow revenue through investment activity and portfolio expansion at blended stabilized yields near 8.7%-8.9%.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $96.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $142.8 million in 2026-Q1. Year-to-date investment activity reached approximately $1.5 billion at blended stabilized yields near 8.7%, with a $540 million pipeline as of 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on revenue growth through active portfolio expansion.
“Year-to-date, we've deployed approximately $1.5 billion at a blended stabilized yield of roughly 8.7%.”
“We currently have no intention of slowing down, with $747 million of investments announced in April and another $117 million announced today.”
“$561.5 million of investment activity closed at a blended stabilized yield of 8.8%.”
“Normalized FFO and FAD growth driven by investment activity and portfolio expansion.”
Breaks if: PE falls below 20
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CTRE's performance will depend on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.