Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CareTrust REIT (CTRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.18-2.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.68 → 1.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize or improve cash from operations near $90 million quarterly | A supporting condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >= $90 million per quarter. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $90 million per quarter | Cash from operations: $134.749M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026134,749,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented real estate business relying in part on acquisitions, rather than a low-risk income story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is rated neutral.
CTRE is valued at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of the evidence. The valuation signal is justified, but confidence in that assessment is low, so the degree of optimism already priced in is uncertain.
Near term, revenue, net income, and per-share guidance have risen, and the dividend payout ratio is near management’s stated level. Acquisition activity is expanding, including an agreement for 45 UK care homes, but adds execution and financing demands; recent records also include a negative capital-allocation item. The miss-risk estimate is low, though the evidence notes recent misses in a high-miss-rate industry.
The multi-year view depends on CTRE sustaining growth and delivering on its large acquisition program without weakening execution or credibility. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent raise would be a negative signal, while lower interest rates could support the sector. Weak results or guidance from sector peers could also remove a helpful backdrop.
For the next one to three years, the business has a strong recent growth record, but its premium valuation and fragile earnings quality leave the thesis dependent on steady execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain or grow net income above $80 million quarterly |
| Profit remains solid, with net income rising from $68.5M to $80.2M. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $80 million per quarter |
Net income: $88.996M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $80 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202688,996,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $442M in 2026 | A primary condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >= $442 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $442 million in FY26 | Revenue: $161.348M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $442 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026161,348,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation premium with PE near 28 | A supporting condition in CareTrust REIT's published investment case. The stated target is PE around 28. | Broken | PE falls below 20 | P/E (TTM): 22.59x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202622.5893 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $1.67 · observed estimates
$0.69B → $0.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.74 | $690,234,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.74 | $709,214,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $709,214,010 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.61 | $574,405,753 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.64 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.64 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.64 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.65 | $588,966,841 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.66 | $591,364,441 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.66 | $591,364,441 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.66 | $591,364,441 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.66 | $591,364,441 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.67 | $586,924,941 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.67 | $586,924,941 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.68 | $596,519,602 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.68 | $592,254,241 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.68 | $576,469,427 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.68 | $584,548,802 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.68 | $596,616,552 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.68 | $596,616,552 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.68 | $596,616,552 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.68 | $596,616,552 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.68 | $611,931,854 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.68 | $611,931,854 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.68 | $623,390,187 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.68 | $623,390,187 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.67 | $627,056,968 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.