CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. (CTRI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.54+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTRI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-12
CFO — Kelly Youngblood: The filing announces the appointment of an external hire as CFO to replace a predecessor, which is a significant executive change but not a departure event itself.
Why it matters: If Centuri integrates well, it can grow bigger and stronger.
Supportive ifManagement says that adding JJ White will bring over $20 million in yearly profit.
Worry ifIf there are integration problems, it may delay or lower profits from JJ White.
Why it matters: A steady book-to-bill ratio shows strong demand. It also shows good project management.
Supportive ifBook-to-bill ratio remains at or above 1.2x for the full year 2026.
Worry ifBook-to-bill ratio drops below 1.0x. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: The company has a capex guidance of $75 to $90 million for 2026. Meeting this target is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifCapex for 2026 reaches the upper end of guidance at $90 million or more.
Worry ifCapex for 2026 is below $75 million. This shows less investment.
Why it matters: Strong growth would prove Centuri's market strength and good operations.
Supportive ifIn Q3, revenue grew over 30% from last year, showing strong performance.
Worry ifIf revenue growth is below 20% from last year, it raises worries about demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,139 loss on $10,000 · 51.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in gross margin guidance can show profit shifts. Stability is important.
Watch forThe company gives an update showing better gross margin guidance for 2026.
Also watch forThe company lowers its gross margin guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this margin goal shows good cost control and more money made.
Supportive ifManagement says the Base Gross Profit Margin is about 9.0% in late 2026.
Worry ifIf the margin is below 9.0%, it shows cost problems or inefficiencies.
Why it matters: The company aims to keep its revenue guidance of $3.24 to $3.54 billion for 2026. This shows commitment to growth despite recent revenue decline.
Watch forRevenue for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds $800 million, supporting the guidance.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue is below $700 million. This shows challenges in meeting guidance.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Centuri's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again toward 6% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 6%. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Strong bookings would indicate robust demand and support revenue growth targets.
Supportive ifBookings for Q3 exceed $1 billion, supporting a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x.
Worry ifIf bookings drop below $800 million, it may mean less demand or more competition.
Why it matters: The company has mixed signals about gross margin for 2026. An update could show if it can make more money.
Watch forGross profit margin for Q2 2026 is 5% or higher. This shows progress.
Also watch forGross profit margin for Q2 2026 is below 4%. This suggests ongoing challenges.