Culp Inc (CULP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryManufacturing - TextilesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.43+1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryManufacturing - TextilesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CULP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
CULP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-01
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 contains adjusted income statement information for the three- and 12-month periods ended May 3, 2026…
Why it matters: Lower inventory means better management. It can also help cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal inventory drops below $47.5 million by the end of Q1 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifTotal inventory rises above $47.5 million by the end of Q1 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows cost efficiency efforts are working. It helps raise gross profit and cut costs.
Supportive ifAnnualized savings reported at $10M or more.
Worry ifAnnual savings are below $10M.
Why it matters: More tariff refunds would help cash flow and lower debt.
Supportive ifCulp gets more tariff refunds over $7 million. This improves liquidity.
Worry ifNo more tariff refunds come in, limiting financial gains.
Why it matters: If the consumer discretionary sector makes more money, it may help Culp.
Supportive ifThe consumer discretionary sector is seeing revenue growth. This is the first time in over a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,258 loss on $10,000 · 42.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows that changes are working. This could help investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2027 is positive. This is without tariff refunds.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows that operations have ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds could help cash flow and lower debt. This would improve financial stability.
Supportive ifReceipt of $7 million in IEEPA tariff refunds in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifNo big tariff refunds were received. This limits cash flow improvements.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show ongoing struggles in a tough market. It would confirm that revenue growth is not improving as management hopes.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $47.9M.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $47.9M.
Why it matters: Higher net sales show success in facing tough demand.
Supportive ifNet sales for Q1 fiscal 2027 exceed $51.6 million from Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNet sales for Q1 fiscal 2027 fall below $51.6 million from Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A better gross profit margin means good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifGross profit margin for Q1 fiscal 2027 improves by at least 200 basis points from Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls or stays the same. This shows there are still cost issues.
Why it matters: Strong growth in bedding sales shows the company is gaining market share. It also shows good product innovation.
Supportive ifBedding sales growth exceeds 10% year-over-year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifBedding sales growth below 5% year-over-year means the company may lose market share.