CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.62+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVBF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CVBF — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-05-26
Executive Vice President and General Counsel — Richard Wohl: Richard Wohl is retiring from his role as Executive Vice President and General Counsel.
Why it matters: Loan growth will indicate if the merger expands CVBF's lending capacity and market reach.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 5% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth is less than 2% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: How well Heritage integrates will show if CVBF gets stronger in the market.
Supportive ifGood financial results from the combined company in Q2 2026 will be a sign.
Worry ifProblems with integration could hurt finances or cause customers to leave.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.20 in the next earnings announcement.
Worry ifIf the dividend is cut or not kept, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Good integration shows the Heritage acquisition is valuable. This affects growth and profits.
Supportive ifNet interest income grows over $44 million in Q3 2026. This shows integration is working.
Worry ifNet interest income grows less than $20 million in Q3 2026. This hints at integration problems.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,325 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.20 per share through Q4 2026.
Worry ifDividend cut below $0.20 per share by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin shows good management of income and costs.
Watch forQ3 net interest margin stays at or above 3.72%, showing strong results.
Also watch forQ3 net interest margin is below 3.44%. This suggests issues with income management.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows Heritage is integrating well and there is demand for loans.
Supportive ifQ3 loan growth is over 39% year over year. This confirms good integration.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 30% year over year. This suggests integration problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing after the acquisition.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth compared to the previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may show management's trust in the stock's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of shares repurchased under the new program by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo news on share buybacks by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Slow loan growth shows problems with merging Heritage and keeping market share.
Worry ifLoan growth was below $3 billion in Q3. This shows integration problems.
Less concerning ifLoan growth is over $3 billion in Q3. This shows good integration.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin show how well the new loan portfolio and funding costs are doing.
Watch forNet interest margin goes above 3.80% in Q3 2026. This shows good asset management.
Also watch forNet interest margin drops below 3.60% in Q3 2026. This hints at cost or yield management issues.
Why it matters: The first earnings report including Heritage's results will show if the merger boosts growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income over $55 million. This shows the integration worked well.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows net income under $50 million. This points to problems with integration.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal broader economic issues affecting CVBF.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin shows pressure on profits after the Heritage deal.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 3.44%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin maintains or increases above 3.44%.
Why it matters: A drop in earnings per share shows weaker profits after the acquisition.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $0.29.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported at or above $0.29.