Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$566.19+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
CVCO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 30, 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated in this
Why it matters: If it drops below 20%, it shows less profit in housing. This raises concerns.
Worry ifFactory-built housing gross profit margin was below 20% for Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifFactory-built housing gross profit margin stays above 20% for Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Getting more revenue shows strong demand. It also shows good pricing strategies.
Supportive ifThe net revenue for factory-built housing is above $550 million.
Worry ifThe net revenue for factory-built housing is below $550 million.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company manages costs. A drop below 10% could signal trouble.
Worry ifOperating income grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth reported at 10% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Sustaining over 9% growth shows strong demand and effective operations. It supports management's growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 9% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 9% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,468 loss on $10,000 · 34.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this amount shows good capital use and helps keep share prices stable.
Supportive ifCavco announces stock buybacks totaling $150 million under the new plan.
Worry ifCavco does not do many stock buybacks. This shows weaker use of capital.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue shows that more people want factory-built homes.
Supportive ifCavco reports Q2 revenue growth above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: If it drops below $5.00, profits may decline. This could hurt investor feelings.
Worry ifNet income per share reported below $5.00 for Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifNet income per share remains above $5.00 for Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth shows high demand and supports revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported over 50% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below 50% year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Stable margins show good cost control and pricing power. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 22% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 20% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More repurchases show good use of money and trust in the company's future.
Supportive ifStock repurchases exceed $50 million in Q2.
Worry ifStock repurchases fall below $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A backlog increase would indicate strong demand and future revenue growth potential.
Supportive ifBacklogs exceed $350 million at the end of the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklogs decrease below $250 million at the end of the next quarter.