Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$643.97-5.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 42.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -22.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVCO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 30, 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated in this
Why it matters: Cavco broke ground on a new Arizona plant. The company reported capacity use near 75% in Q2, so added output is worth tracking.
Watch forCavco reports the El Mirage plant is open and makes more factory-built homes.
Also watch forCavco reports that the El Mirage opening is delayed or the plant is not adding output.
Why it matters: Cavco said these orders and shipments began in Q2. More named orders could add a new source of demand.
Supportive ifCavco reports more orders or shipments for data center workforce housing in a later quarter.
Worry ifCavco reports no more orders or shipments for data center workforce housing.
Why it matters: Q2 home sales rose 15.3% year over year. Another gain would extend the recent growth run.
Supportive ifFiscal Q3 home sales rise year over year from 5,972 homes.
Worry ifFiscal Q3 home sales fall below 5,972 homes.
Why it matters: Factory-built housing margin fell from 22.9% to 21.1% year over year. More pressure could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifFiscal Q3 factory-built housing gross margin is below 21.1%.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q3 factory-built housing gross margin is 21.1% or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,468 loss on $10,000 · 34.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Backlog rose by $50 million in Q2, even as orders slowed from the prior quarter. More growth would support future factory output.
Supportive ifFiscal Q3 backlog exceeds $348 million.
Worry ifFiscal Q3 backlog falls below $348 million.