Commercial Vehicle Group Inc (CVGI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.24+4.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVGI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 announcing earnings for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The information, including exhibit 99.1 hereto, the registrant furnished in this report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Registration stat…
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth signals strong demand and supports the raised guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Going above this number shows strong efficiency and growth in demand.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 was over $6 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 was below $5 million.
Why it matters: This range is crucial for financial health and reflects operational efficiency. It shows how well the company manages costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is over $6 million. This shows progress toward the yearly goal.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is below $6 million. This may show some problems.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is important for long-term growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow was positive in Q2. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow was negative in Q2. This raises worries about financial stability.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$255 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $774 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,706 loss on $10,000 · 47.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target is key to showing demand recovery. It signals the company's ability to grow after a slow start in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenues are over $165 million. This shows a strong path to meet full-year goals.
Worry ifQ2 revenues are under $165 million. This points to ongoing demand problems.
Why it matters: Debt reduction is a priority. Progress indicates better balance sheet strength.
Supportive ifTotal debt drops by at least $12.8 million after the sale-leaseback.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Higher production levels show strong demand. This could increase CVGI's revenues.
Supportive ifClass 8 truck production is over 274,000 units as expected.
Worry ifClass 8 truck production falls below 250,000 units.
Why it matters: Gross margin went up in Q2. This means better efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifGross margin improves further beyond 12.7% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines below 12.7% in Q3.
Why it matters: This guidance shows strong demand and good operations in all areas.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance remains at $725M-$755M during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement revises revenue guidance down from $725M-$755M due to demand weakness.
Why it matters: More customers can help grow revenue. It can also improve operations.
Supportive ifManagement sees a clear rise in customer orders or inquiries in key areas.
Worry ifCustomer activity remains low. This shows ongoing demand problems.
Why it matters: This guidance shows better operations and growth in important areas.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EBITDA guidance stays at $26M-$31M in the next call.
Worry ifManagement has lowered the adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now $26M-$31M.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow signals financial health and supports debt reduction efforts.
Supportive ifFree cash flow from continuing operations was positive for Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow from continuing operations was negative for Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how CVGI is doing now and in the future. It helps us understand management's plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth or improved margins compared to prior quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses or falling revenue.