Commercial Vehicle Group Inc (CVGI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.27-4.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVGI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-02
CEO — James R. Ray, Jr.: The CEO is retiring with a named successor (David Ruppel) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Trim Systems revenue rose 21.1% in Q2 after falling 13.9% in Q1. Another decline would weaken the sign of recovery.
Watch forQ3 Trim Systems and Components revenue is above $43.9M, its Q2 2025 level.
Also watch forQ3 Trim Systems and Components revenue is below $43.9M year over year.
Why it matters: CVG's 2026 outlook uses a forecast of 274,111 North American Class 8 builds, up 9% from 2025. Lower builds could pressure sales.
Watch forACT Research reports 2026 North American Class 8 builds at or above 274,111 units, and CVG keeps its revenue range.
Also watch forACT Research reports builds below 274,111 units, or CVG cuts its full-year revenue range.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue will show whether first-half growth can support the raised full-year target. The range calls for $358M-$390M in the second half.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is at least $179M, and management keeps the $725M-$755M full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $179M, or management cuts the $725M full-year floor.
Why it matters: Management has kept positive free cash flow as a full-year goal. It also cites cash generation as key to lowering debt.
Supportive ifThe 2026 year-end report shows free cash flow above $0 and lower total debt than at year-end 2025.
Worry ifThe 2026 year-end report shows free cash flow at or below $0, or higher total debt than at year-end 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $771 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,225 loss on $10,000 · 52.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose only from $4.8M in Q1 to $5.4M in Q2. Margins still need to improve to meet the raised target.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $6.5M, and management keeps the $26M-$31M full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $6.5M, or management cuts the $26M full-year floor.
Why it matters: CVG named the Zoox robotaxi program as part of new business growth. Q3 segment sales can show whether that ramp continues.
Supportive ifQ3 Global Electrical Systems revenue is above $62.0M, its Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 Global Electrical Systems revenue is $62.0M or less. Management cites slower new-program ramps.