Carvana (CVNA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.59+1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVNA
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 CVNA trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median, but our blended $58 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $67–$120. Note: our $58 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($67–$120). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $86.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $20.20 | 16.1 | 1.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $30.80 | 15.3 | 2.02 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $27.80 | 0.8 | 33.86 | TTM | high |
| triangulated |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$67.00 – $120.00 (median $86.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-08-18
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 261% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.8 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.54/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q1, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2024-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $86.72 |
| 15.1 |
| 5.74 |
| Triangulated |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $40.74 | 15.3 | 2.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $51.47 | 0.8 | 62.69 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $53.88 | 15.3 | 3.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $68.06 | 0.8 | 82.91 | Analyst | medium |