Carvana (CVNA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.59+1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVNA — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 14, 2026, Carvana Co. (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into that certain Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), with the lenders party thereto from time to time and Barclays Bank PLC, as the administrative agent. The Credit Agreement provides for a $1.66 billion senior secured term loan B facility maturing on August 14, 2033 (the “Term Loan B Facility”). The net proceeds from the Term Loan B Facility are expected to be used (i) to…
Why it matters: Expanding production capacity is crucial for meeting growth goals. Delays can hurt future sales.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan to grow production by at least 10% in 2026.
Less concerning ifThere are no updates or delays in production growth plans for 2026.
Why it matters: Integrating new sites helps increase production. This supports Carvana's growth goals and meets demand.
Supportive ifAt least 6 new ADESA sites will be integrated by year-end.
Worry ifFewer than 6 new ADESA sites will be integrated by year-end.
Why it matters: Cutting debt helps with financial stability and growth options.
Supportive ifDebt reduction reported at or above $1.2 billion.
Worry ifDebt reduction was below $1 billion.
Why it matters: Increasing retail units sold is a key goal for Carvana. It shows the effectiveness of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifRetail units sold increase to over 80,000 units in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRetail units sold remain below 76,000 units in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$268 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $677 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,121 loss on $10,000 · 41.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster delivery times make customers happier and can boost sales. Slower times may show problems.
Supportive ifAverage delivery times in Q1 2026 improve by at least 1 day compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifAverage delivery times in Q1 2026 worsen or stay the same compared to Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Reducing debt gives more financial freedom and helps growth plans. It shows management can follow financial strategies.
Supportive ifTotal debt reduced by over $1.2 billion as per the credit agreement.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Lower shipping costs improve customer satisfaction. It can drive more sales and repeat business.
Supportive ifAverage shipping fees drop further from $60 lower than last year in Q4 2025.
Worry ifAverage shipping fees increase or do not decrease from the current level.
Why it matters: More production capacity is important for growth. It helps Carvana expand its business.
Supportive ifManagement plans to boost production capacity by at least 20% in 6 months.
Worry ifThere is no plan to increase production capacity in the next 6 months.
Why it matters: The credit deal cuts cash interest costs a lot. This helps Carvana be more flexible and grow.
Supportive ifCarvana shows a big drop in cash interest costs in Q3.
Worry ifCash interest costs stay the same or go up in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 10% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 10% in Q2. This shows profits are getting worse.
Why it matters: Finishing these integrations is key for making more products and reaching growth goals.
Supportive ifIntegration of 6 to 8 ADESA sites is done by the end of Q2.
Worry ifIntegration of ADESA sites is delayed or falls short of the target.
Why it matters: An increase in retail units sold would show that Carvana is on track to meet its growth goals. This aligns with management's target of selling 3 million cars annually.
Supportive ifRetail units sold in Q3 exceed 197,325 units from Q2.
Worry ifRetail units sold in Q3 fall below 197,325 units.
Why it matters: Adding more ADESA sites helps increase production. This helps Carvana reach its goal of selling 3 million cars each year.
Supportive ifSix to eight more ADESA sites are being integrated.
Worry ifNo new ADESA site integrations announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cutting debt will give Carvana more financial flexibility. This is key for stable operations.
Supportive ifCarvana reports a reduction of over $1.2 billion in total debt.
Worry ifThere has been no big debt reduction from the noteholder deal.
Why it matters: If Carvana hits this target, it shows strong financial performance. It also helps reach record Adjusted EBITDA.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is more than $2.7 billion.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $2.7 billion.