Carvana (CVNA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.56+8.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVNA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Carvana Co. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026 by issuing a letter to its shareholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on October 28, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its shareholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit…
Why it matters: Carvana has three full buildouts under way and plans to start production at all three in 2027. Delays could slow its capacity growth.
Watch forAll three ADESA sites start production during 2027.
Also watch forOne or more of the three sites has not begun production by the end of 2027.
Why it matters: Carvana plans to focus on GAAP profit measures and stop giving quarterly or yearly outlooks. The first 2027 report will show how clearly results can be tracked.
Watch forThe first 2027 results report leads with Total GPU, SG&A expense, Operating income, and Net income.
Also watch forThe first 2027 results report does not focus on these GAAP measures, or still gives quarterly or yearly outlooks.
Why it matters: Carvana said Q4 units would rise from Q3. A rise would keep its growth run on track.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 retail units sold exceed Q3's 217,385.
Worry ifQ4 2026 retail units sold are 217,385 or fewer.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$211 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $618 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,121 loss on $10,000 · 41.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.