CVS Health (CVS)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$96.74-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVS — President transition
Dated 2026-08-17
Director — Larry M. Robbins: The filing concerns the resignation of a board director and the appointment of a replacement, which is a governance matter rather than a senior executive management change.
Why it matters: Changes in enrollment can affect revenue and profits in the Health Care Benefits area.
Watch forMedicare Advantage enrollment goes up by over 5% after the CMS rate notice.
Also watch forMedicare Advantage enrollment goes down by over 5% after the CMS rate notice.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue target would reflect strong growth across all business segments.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for 2026 are over $414 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenues for 2026 are below $414 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping this revenue guidance shows strong growth and a good market position.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance remains at least $405B for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to under $405B for 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is key for CVS to support its debt and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or grows less than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,644 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows better efficiency. This can help with financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations shows a positive trend or increase.
Worry ifCash flow from operations continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising adjusted EPS guidance shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says adjusted EPS guidance will stay above $8.00 in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance to below $8.00 in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The outcome will show how well CVS manages its debt and capital structure.
Watch forCVS completes the Any and All Tender Offer for its 4.100% Senior Notes.
Also watch forCVS does not finish the Any and All Tender Offer or many amounts are untendered.
Why it matters: An increase signals stronger earnings potential. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance. It is now higher than before.
Worry ifManagement may keep or lower adjusted EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Exceeding this revenue mark would indicate strong performance across CVS's segments. This could enhance growth outlook.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q2 were over $100 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenues for Q2 were under $100 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this cash flow target shows CVS is improving its capital allocation. This could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at least $4.5 billion for Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $4.5 billion for Q2.
Why it matters: The new CEO's direction may change company priorities. This could affect performance and investor sentiment.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a clear strategy. This plan gets approval from investors.
Also watch forThe new CEO's strategy gets criticism. Investors feel confused about it.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps CVS invest and grow. This shows the company is healthy.
Supportive ifQ3 cash flow from operations reported at least $11.5 billion.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations reported below $10.6 billion.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good business strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenues increase year-over-year by more than 6%.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues increase year-over-year by less than 6%.
Why it matters: Better margins show good management and efficient work.
Supportive ifHealth Care Benefits segment adjusted operating income grows more than 10% from last year.
Worry ifHealth Care Benefits segment adjusted operating income falls or grows less than 5%.