CVS Health (CVS)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$81.33+1.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVS — President transition
Dated 2026-08-17
Director — Larry M. Robbins: The filing concerns the resignation of a board director and the appointment of a replacement, which is a governance matter rather than a senior executive management change.
Why it matters: CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range twice, to $7.90-$8.10. Another raise would support the earnings recovery story.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 4, CVS raises its 2026 adjusted EPS range above $7.90-$8.10.
Worry ifOn Nov. 4, CVS cuts its range below $7.90 or keeps it while reporting results below the current outlook.
Why it matters: The Q2 medical benefit ratio fell to 87.4% from 89.9%. A similar or lower result would help margins keep recovering.
Supportive ifQ3 Health Care Benefits medical benefit ratio is 87.4% or lower year over year.
Worry ifQ3 medical benefit ratio rises above 87.4% from a year ago.
Why it matters: CVS raised its 2026 cash flow floor to $11.5 billion after reporting $10.6 billion year to date. The next update tests that goal.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 4, CVS keeps or raises its 2026 cash flow floor of $11.5 billion.
Worry ifOn Nov. 4, CVS lowers its 2026 cash flow floor below $11.5 billion.
Why it matters: Health Services profit fell 7.1% in Q1, then rose 10.0% in Q2. The next report tests whether that rebound lasts.
Watch forQ3 Health Services adjusted operating income rises from a year ago. This extends Q2's 10.0% gain.
Also watch forQ3 Health Services adjusted operating income falls from a year ago. This reverses Q2's gain.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,770 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.