CPI Aerostructures Inc (CVU)
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.16+1.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVU — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-18
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 18, 2026, CPI Aerostructures, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the exhibit related thereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “ Exchange Act ”) or otherwise subject to the liab…
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it may help CPI Aerostructures.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth returns to above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. This supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $533 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or stays below $533 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that management is doing a good job with efficiency and products.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported above $19.1 million, showing over 10% growth from Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue below $19.1 million means weaker performance than last year.
Why it matters: New contract awards would confirm strong demand and support backlog growth.
Supportive ifNew contract awards exceed $62 million in 2026.
Worry ifNew contract awards fall below $62 million in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,285 loss on $10,000 · 32.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New contracts show growth in missile and autonomous systems. This is important for management.
Supportive ifNew contracts worth over $50 million were announced. This supports the growth plan.
Worry ifNo big new contracts were awarded next quarter. This may mean stagnation.
Why it matters: Keeping a margin above 22% shows good efficiency. It also means better product mix.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 22% for Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 22% for Q3.
Why it matters: Strong Q2 earnings would show profits and better operations.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows net income above $1 million.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a net loss or income below $1 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the backlog will show if CPI Aero is maintaining customer relationships and order flow. A strong backlog supports future revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog rises above $500 million. This means demand is strong.
Worry ifBacklog falls or stays the same. This suggests there may be challenges.
Why it matters: Going past this revenue mark shows strong demand and good performance in defense contracts.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $18 million. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $17 million. This suggests weak demand or operational problems.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and results. Investors will look for signs of improvement or more problems.
Watch forGood news or new plans from leaders can lead to better results.
Also watch forOngoing poor results or bad news from leaders show there are still challenges.
Why it matters: The sector is maturing, and revenue growth has slowed. If CPI shows a rebound, it may indicate a stronger position in the market.
Supportive ifCPI Aerostructures will show revenue growth over 5% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Starting production on missile work could signal growth in a high-demand market. This is a new strategic focus for CPI Aero.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the start of production on missile projects.
Worry ifNo announcement of production start within the next quarter.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog means strong future revenue and customer trust.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $550 million. This reflects good contract wins and customer ties.
Worry ifBacklog goes down or stays the same. This shows trouble in getting new contracts.
Why it matters: Success in making missiles would show that management's growth plan is working and help market presence.
Supportive ifA contract award or a milestone for missiles is announced.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in missile production plans show problems in getting things done.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin level shows good cost management and better product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin was over 20% for Q3. This shows strong efficiency.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 20%. This suggests cost management challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping adjusted EBITDA over $3 million shows the company is making money. It also shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was above $3 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $3 million for Q3.
Why it matters: New contracts will help growth in missile and autonomous systems. This is important for CPI Aero.
Supportive ifNew contracts in missile systems are worth over $62 million.
Worry ifNo new contract awards in missile systems or awards below $62 million.