Reading CW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CW free→Reading CW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CW free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may pose challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from major players like GE and RTX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $758.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $758 CW trades at 55× p/e — 1.4× the 38× p/e peer median, and above its own 42× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $543 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts: $650–$870. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.56 → $3.57 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$304.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,297.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is on track for revenue and EPS growth.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Stock hitting all-time high indicates strong market confidence.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreemen t On May 19, 2026, Curtiss-Wright Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) evidencing a new syndicated $1 billion revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”). The Credit Agreement was entered into by and among the Company and certain of its subsidiaries, as borrowers, the lenders party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent for the lenders. The obligations under the Credit Faci…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$650.00 – $870.00 (median $736.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strengthening Defense and Commercial Nuclear market growth to drive revenue.
Aim for mid-teens EPS growth, reflecting a 13% - 16% increase.
Focus on improving operating income through margin expansion.
Focus on increasing net income through strategic cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Updates on net income growth will show if the company is making more money.
Confirms:Management reports net income growth above 10% in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management reports net income growth below 0% in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the industrial sector.
Confirms:Curtiss-Wright will report revenue growth over 8% each year in the next quarters.
Disproves:Curtiss-Wright will report revenue growth under 5% each year in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows good cost management and revenue growth. It shows management's focus on raising net income.
Confirms:Net income growth exceeds 15% year-over-year in Q2.
Disproves:Net income growth drops below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Details on the credit facility will show how the company plans to use the funds. This impacts future growth and capital allocation.
Confirms one read:The company shares details about projects funded by the new credit line.
Confirms the other:No clear plans or projects are announced for the use of the credit facility.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase revenue. It means the company’s growth plan is working.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 12% year-over-year, better than Q1's 13.4%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement The information included in
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information included in
Other Events On May 20, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its entrance into the new Credit Agreement. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On Wednesday, May 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A conference call and webcast presentation will be held on Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 10:00 am ET for management to discuss the Company’s first quarter 2026 financial performance as well as expectations for 2026 financial performance. Lynn M. Bamford, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and K. Christopher Farkas, Exec…