Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) (CWEN)
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.28-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.45 → 0.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CWEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAFD between $470M and $510M in 2026 | The company aims for 2026 CAFD between $470M and $510M. | Broken | CAFD falls below $470M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a contracted clean-energy and utility business with a growth-investment thesis, but recent results make the setup mixed rather than a clear durable-growth story. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: growth investments have supported one segment, while company momentum and recent financial performance have weakened.
The valuation evidence describes CWEN as expensive, while model confidence is low and the expectations gap is notable. The evidence labels the priced-in signal unjustified, but does not show that the full combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence is concentrated in the market’s expectations.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent earnings surprises have been erratic, and management lowered 2026 CAFD guidance to $430 million to $470 million from $470 million to $510 million. Growth investments lifted Renewables & Storage Adjusted EBITDA, but wind availability issues and the lower guidance range temper that progress.
The next stage depends on whether CWEN can meet its revised CAFD guidance and improve wind fleet performance while advancing contracted growth. A guidance increase, lower interest rates, or continued strength among utility peers could help the setup; continued operating weakness would keep execution concerns in focus.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CWEN’s long-term thesis rests on turning growth investments into steadier results and delivering against the revised outlook. Current evidence is mixed, with progress in renewables offset by lower guidance and operational challenges. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C)'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.74 in FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS remains negative or below $1.5 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.74 in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue above $1.7B in 2026 | A primary condition in Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.73B total revenue in FY26. | Intact | total revenue falls below $1.6B in FY26 | Revenue: $481M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.73B total revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026481,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.07 → $0.72 · observed estimates
$1.88B → $1.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.74 | $1,911,447,720 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.74 | $1,911,447,720 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.74 | $1,905,692,230 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $1,876,471,464 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.74 | $1,905,692,230 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.74 | $1,905,692,230 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.57 | $1,875,712,414 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.74 | $1,905,692,230 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.57 | $1,875,712,414 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.74 | $1,910,042,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.74 | $1,910,042,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.74 | $1,910,042,380 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.06 | $1,910,042,380 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.06 | $1,910,042,380 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.55 | $1,880,034,580 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.32 | $1,827,587,411 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.64 | $1,833,377,699 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.64 | $1,833,357,865 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.73 | $1,841,424,372 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.73 | $1,841,424,372 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.73 | $1,841,424,372 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.73 | $1,841,424,372 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.45 | $1,834,211,378 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.71 | $1,834,216,644 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.73 | $1,839,600,351 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.73 | $1,839,600,351 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.73 | $1,839,600,351 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.73 | $1,839,600,351 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.73 | $1,839,600,351 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.72 | $1,837,659,813 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.