Dana Incorporated (DAN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.04+1.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into financial health and progress on strategic goals.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong sales growth and improved margins.
Also watch forEarnings report shows sales or margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong performance. It helps support higher company values.
Supportive ifDana reports adjusted EBITDA growth of at least $200 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than $200 million for 2026.
Why it matters: New business wins are vital for Dana's growth and sales targets, supporting the Dana 2030 plan.
Supportive ifDana announces new business wins over $200 million. This is in contracts.
Worry ifNew business wins are below $200 million. This raises concerns about growth.
Why it matters: Progress on the $2 billion share buyback plan shows value for shareholders.
Supportive ifDana buys back $300 million in shares in 2026.
Worry ifDana fails to execute on the share repurchase plan, completing less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is key for Dana's growth strategy. It will create a larger, more competitive company.
Supportive ifThe deal will close as planned in Q1 2027. All needed approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe deal may face delays. It might not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Dana can work better and make more money.
Supportive ifDana announces total cost savings of $325 million achieved by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal cost savings are much lower than the $325 million target.
Why it matters: Starting production for the RAM Dakota program shows growth in Dana's backlog.
Supportive ifProduction for the RAM Dakota program starts on time in early 2028.
Worry ifThere are delays or cancellations in production for the RAM Dakota program.
Why it matters: New contracts can show growth. They can also support Dana's market plan.
Supportive ifNew business wins over $200 million in net sales were announced.
Worry ifNo major new business wins are expected in the next quarters.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong performance and good cost management. Both are key for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 shows an increase of more than $200 million from 2025.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than $200 million compared to 2025.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This could hurt Dana's performance.
Worry ifDana's revenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal will show how well Dana runs operations and manages costs.
Supportive ifTotal cost reductions reported reach or exceed $325 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal cost cuts are less than $250 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: If sales guidance goes up, it shows strong demand. It also shows good operations.
Supportive ifSales guidance raised above $7.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifSales guidance remains at or below $7.5 billion with no signs of improvement.
Why it matters: A margin above 10% shows strong operations. It helps meet growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin is above 10%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifThe Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin is under 9%. This shows issues with operations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $371 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,601 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.