Dana Incorporated (DAN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.26-6.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Dana repurchased $369 million of shares through Q3 and plans about $100 million more in Q4. The reported amount will show if it follows through.
Supportive ifDana reports about $100 million of Q4 share repurchases, near its stated plan.
Worry ifDana reports far less than $100 million in Q4 repurchases, or pauses the program before the deal closes.
Why it matters: Dana says one approval is still pending. Getting it would clear a key step toward the planned first-quarter 2027 close.
Supportive ifDana or Eaton reports that all approvals are complete. The first-quarter 2027 close faces no new delay.
Worry ifA required approval is denied. Or, the companies say a review will push the close past the first quarter of 2027.
Why it matters: Dana reported lower free cash flow in Q3 than a year ago. The full-year target tests its cash generation after higher spending and working-capital timing.
Watch forDana reports full-year adjusted free cash flow of at least $275 million, within its stated $275 million to $375 million range.
Also watch forDana reports full-year adjusted free cash flow below $275 million or cuts the lower end of its target.
Why it matters: The deal plan calls for $250 million in annual cost savings within 24 months after closing. Reported savings will test that goal.
Supportive ifAfter closing, the combined company reports clear savings. These savings track toward $250 million in annual run-rate synergies within 24 months.
Worry ifThe combined company reports that savings are behind plan, cuts the $250 million goal, or extends the 24-month deadline.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $429 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,120 loss on $10,000 · 41.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Dana raised its 2026 sales outlook but kept its profit and cash targets. Q4 results will test whether margin gains continue.
Watch forFull-year adjusted EBITDA is at least $800 million. The reported margin is near or above the 10.6% guidance level.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted EBITDA is below $800 million. Or, the company cuts its $800 million to $850 million target.