Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.67+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DBD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: A drop in margin shows problems with managing costs and making money.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 3.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 3.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management trusts the company's value. It shows confidence in finances.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $60 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $60 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow signals strong cash generation and operational health. This is key for capital allocation.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is positive. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is still negative. This means cash generation problems continue.
Why it matters: A better EBITDA margin means the company is making more money and working well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is higher than Q1 2026. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes down or stays the same. This suggests problems with cost control.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,656 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may impact Diebold Nixdorf's performance. This is a broader market signal.
Watch forSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Also watch forSector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: High free cash flow helps the company invest and give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is over $20 million. This shows strong cash generation is ongoing.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $20 million. This raises worries about cash generation.
Why it matters: Growing backlog in Banking helps future revenue. This is important for planning.
Supportive ifBanking backlog grew in Q3. This shows strong order visibility.
Worry ifBanking backlog is flat or declines. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth. A drop below $255 million could signal trouble.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance reported below $255 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance reported at or above $255 million.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better efficiency. It also means better cost management. This helps with making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $35M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $30M in Q2.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks shows how much management trusts the company's finances.
Watch forBig share buybacks announced show strong financial health.
Also watch forNo news or a pause in buybacks may show caution in managing finances.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 1% would signal a slowdown in momentum and affect outlook.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong order growth points to future revenue and a healthy business.
Supportive ifOrder entry growth reported above 15% YoY for Q3.
Worry ifOrder entry growth falls below 5% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows the company is on track with its revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 6% YoY or better confirms strong execution of growth strategies.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 6% YoY. This shows possible problems in reaching growth goals.
Why it matters: Retail revenue growth shows strong demand. This helps the company grow overall.
Supportive ifRetail revenue grew over 20% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifRetail revenue growth is below 10% year-over-year. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: An increase in net income would show that the company is moving towards profitability. This is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $7M in Q2.
Worry ifNet income remains below $5M in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is key for running operations and paying shareholders. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifFree cash flow returns to positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow may raise worries about financial health and funding operations.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q2 falls below $20 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q2 exceeds $20 million.
Why it matters: More margin expansion shows better efficiency. This helps increase profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin expands beyond 80 bps in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is flat or lower. This shows cost pressures.
Why it matters: Finishing the share buyback program shows trust in financial health and spending.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $200 million share buyback program.
Worry ifThe company announces a pause or reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA margin shows how much money a company makes. If it drops below 13%, it could cause worry.
Worry ifThe EBITDA margin is under 13%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 13%.