Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.33+0.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DBD — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: Retail has been a key source of growth, with large customer wins in North America and Europe. Slower growth would weaken that support.
Watch forRetail revenue grows at least 16% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forRetail revenue growth falls below 10% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow was negative, and the full-year range fell. A result below $190 million would show weaker cash generation.
Worry ifFY2026 free cash flow, on the company's stated measure, is below $190 million.
Less concerning ifFY2026 free cash flow is at least $190 million and within the revised $190 million to $210 million range.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,934 loss on $10,000 · 39.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.