DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (DBRG)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.00+0.13%
Close 2026-09-29 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DBRG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DBRG — M&A activity
Dated 2026-09-30
by reference. At the Company Merger Effective Time, a change of control of DigitalBridge occurred. Prior to the Company Merger Effective Time, Parent caused all of the outstanding shares of common stock of Merger Sub I to be transferred to Duncan Holdco III LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Duncan Holdco II (“Duncan Holdco III”). At the Company Merger Effective Time, Merger Sub I merged with and into DigitalBridge, the separate corporate existence of M…
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects DigitalBridge's growth. A slowdown may change how investors feel.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median, showing a possible slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect DigitalBridge's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are key to growth. Progress can signal stronger future performance.
Supportive ifA new acquisition was announced. It fits with growth goals.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions were announced. This shows a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company improves after the recent earnings miss. Investors look for signs of recovery.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth over $72.2M. This means the company is recovering.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue below $72.2M, suggesting ongoing struggles.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$13 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,369 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is important for DigitalBridge's future plans. It may change the company's growth path.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the merger is done by the end of October 2026.
Worry ifDelays or failure to meet merger conditions may stop the acquisition process.
Why it matters: More cash reserves can show stronger financial health. It also allows for future investments.
Supportive ifCorporate cash reserves increase beyond $300 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifCorporate cash reserves fall below $250 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Fee revenue trends show how well DigitalBridge is doing. A drop could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifFee revenue drops from last year in Q3 2026. This shows possible problems.
Less concerning ifFee revenue rises or stays steady year-over-year. This suggests good management and growth.
Why it matters: Updates on acquisitions will show if the company is expanding as planned. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about how the recent acquisition is doing.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about the acquisition integration.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is important for DigitalBridge's future plans. It will change management and how money is spent.
Supportive ifThe merger is done and all conditions are met. DigitalBridge can now work with new management.
Worry ifIf the merger is delayed or fails, DigitalBridge will face more uncertainty.
Why it matters: The merger terms set a $16.00 cash price for each common share. The closing filing states the merger took effect.
Supportive ifMerger records confirm common shares were exchanged for $16.00 cash per share, as set out in the merger terms.
Worry ifMerger records show the $16.00 cash payment was not made for common shares or the merger terms changed before closing.
Why it matters: Higher earnings mean better financial health. This leads to more trust from investors.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings were over $20 million.
Worry ifEarnings fell below $15 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower growth may show problems with finances and affect how investors feel.
Worry ifLTM distributable earnings growth is below 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifLTM distributable earnings growth is above 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Good capital plans are key for DigitalBridge's growth. Changes may show management's focus on new chances or risks.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new plan. It focuses on growth investments or paying off debt after the merger.
Worry ifManagement has a cautious plan. This shows few chances for growth.
Why it matters: Fee revenue rose 3% year over year, while fee-related earnings fell 17%. The next report can show whether fee income holds up.
Supportive ifA new company report shows quarterly fee revenue above $87 million and growth from a year earlier.
Worry ifA new company report shows quarterly fee revenue below $87 million or a drop from a year earlier.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into financial performance and market reactions post-merger. It is key for assessing future growth.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a big rise in net income or revenue since Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in net income or revenue. This raises worries about finances.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows good management and market position. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifIn Q3, fee revenue grew over 3% from last year. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifIn Q3, fee revenue growth is below 0%. This points to operational problems.
Why it matters: How money is spent can change growth and efficiency. This affects overall performance.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for money allocation that helps growth.
Also watch forManagement does not provide a clear plan for money allocation. This raises investor worries.
Why it matters: Managing debt well is important for stability and growth.
Supportive ifThere is news of more refinancing of corporate debt beyond the $400 million done.
Worry ifNo new news on debt refinancing or higher debt levels.
Why it matters: The merger closed, and DBRG common stock was set to leave the NYSE. This marks the end of the public-share event.
Supportive ifThe September 30 filing confirms the merger took effect. It also says the NYSE was asked to suspend DBRG trading and delist its common stock.
Worry ifA filing reports that the merger did not take effect, or that the NYSE did not suspend or delist DBRG common stock.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how well the company handles its money. This is important for stability.
Watch forManagement presents a new plan to improve how they use capital.
Also watch forManagement does not give a clear capital allocation plan. This raises concerns.
Why it matters: How capital is used affects financial health and growth.
Watch forManagement shared a new plan to use capital better.
Also watch forNo updates on capital use strategy. This suggests ongoing problems.
Why it matters: This acquisition can help DigitalBridge grow. It can also improve its digital and power services.
Supportive ifThe ArcLight acquisition is done. It has all the needed approvals and partner agreements.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close. This is due to unmet conditions or regulatory issues.