Reading DFDV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DFDV free→Reading DFDV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DFDV free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, DFDV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 174% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.20 DFDV trades at 7× p/s — 2.0× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.17 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 174% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.17x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
26 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.30 → $-0.34 (-11.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$496.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,301.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,066.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Increased price target reflects positive market sentiment.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Parker White, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Investment Officer of DeFi Development Corp. (the “Company”), resigned from his positions with the Company and the Company agreed to a separation agreement (the “Separation Agreement”) with respect to the termination of Mr. White’s employment with the Company, effective as of June…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DFDV DEFI DEVELOPMENT CORP | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company is winding down its legacy Janover Capital Markets and Janover Insurance businesses.
The company is undergoing significant executive transitions, including the resignation of its COO and CIO.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release disclosing its March 2026 Shareholder Letter and Business Update, as previously announced, copies of which are filed as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report under Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 1…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 1, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a sales agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with R.F. Lafferty & Co., Inc., acting as sales agent or principal (the “Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell from time to time, through or to the Agent, up to an aggregate of $200 million of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.00001 per share (the “Shares”). The Shares, if any, will be issued pursuant to the Compan…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 30, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release disclosing its Fiscal Year 2025 Shareholder Letter and Business Update, as previously announced, copies of which are filed as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report under Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DeFi Development Corp. (the “Company”) elected Adam Townsend as a director of the Company, to fill the newly created directorship resulting from an increase in the size of the Board to seven directors. Mr. Townsend does not have a material interest in any transaction disclosable under Re…