Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.46-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DFH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 49.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DFH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events. On November 5, 2026, Dream Finders Homes, Inc., a Texas corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing the early participation results as of 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on November 4, 2026, of its recently announced private exchange offers (the “Exchange Offer”) and related consent solicitations (the “Consent Solicitation”) relating to any and all outstanding 7.500% Senior Notes due 2031 and 8.000% Senior Notes due 2032 issued by Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (“Beaze…
Why it matters: DFH tied the deal to over $100 million in yearly cost savings. Lower costs would support margins as the two builders combine.
Supportive ifDFH reports a clear path to over $100 million in yearly savings, with lower costs in its results.
Worry ifDFH cuts or delays the $100 million savings goal, or reports rising costs tied to the deal.
Why it matters: DFH launched an exchange for up to $650 million of Beazer notes to simplify its debt structure. The tender results will show how much debt moves to DFH notes.
Watch forDFH reports that holders exchanged most of the $650 million in Beazer notes by the November 20 deadline.
Also watch forDFH reports that few Beazer noteholders took part. Most of the $650 million in Beazer notes remains outstanding.
Why it matters: DFH reported 6,127 closings through Q3 and kept its full-year goal near 9,250. Q4 results will show whether it reaches that goal.
Supportive ifDFH reports about 3,123 or more Q4 closings, bringing 2026 closings to at least 9,250.
Worry ifDFH reports fewer than about 3,123 Q4 closings or cuts its full-year goal below 9,250.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell from 17.5% a year earlier. DFH cited higher land and financing costs, while cost cuts helped lift margin by 70 basis points from Q2.
Watch forQ4 homebuilding gross margin rises above 14.9%. Impairment charges fall or build costs drop.
Also watch forQ4 homebuilding gross margin stays at or below 14.9%. Or, impairment charges rise from Q3's 70-basis-point impact.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$309 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $604 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,475 loss on $10,000 · 64.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.