Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (DFIN)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.92+3.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DFIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operat ions and Financial Condition On July 30, 2026, Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the Company’s financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Information in this
Why it matters: Ken Napolitano's leadership may change sales strategy and performance. His past success hints at revenue growth.
Supportive ifSales growth speeds up in the next quarters, especially in software solutions.
Worry ifSales growth stops or drops even with his leadership.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can disrupt strategy and hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifThere are news of more executive departures or changes in sales.
Less concerning ifExecutive leadership is stable with no new changes.
Why it matters: Updates on the $150 million share buyback show management believes in DFIN's value.
Supportive ifMore shares were bought back under the $150 million program.
Worry ifNo updates or a halt in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Earnings results show trends in revenue. They also reveal how well the company operates.
Watch forEarnings show a year-over-year revenue increase of at least 5%.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue went down compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $476 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,548 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how profitable a company is. A strong result helps investors trust.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income exceeds prior year results by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls compared to last year or does not meet expectations.
Why it matters: Ken Napolitano's plans could help increase revenue and change sales for DFIN.
Supportive ifSales grew in the next quarters due to new ideas from Ken Napolitano.
Worry ifNo big sales growth or bad feedback on new ideas from Ken Napolitano.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. Watching this helps understand future plans.
Watch forThe new President has a strong plan. It helps improve performance metrics.
Also watch forThe transition leads to issues or falls in key performance metrics.
Why it matters: Improving cash from operations is vital for financial health. It impacts funding for growth and dividends.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up by over 15% from Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations declines or remains flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Doing buybacks shows confidence in the company's value. It can help support share prices.
Supportive ifThe company completes at least $50 million in share repurchases by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are executed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower revenue shows problems in capital markets. This can hurt overall performance.
Worry ifCapital markets revenue was less than $45 million.
Less concerning ifCapital markets revenue was more than $50 million.
Why it matters: Ken Napolitano is now the Chief Revenue Officer. His work will be important for DFIN's growth.
Supportive ifSales growth accelerates to above 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales growth remains below 2% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Capital markets revenue is crucial for DFIN. Changes can indicate broader market trends and affect overall performance.
Watch forCapital markets revenue goes over $45 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCapital markets revenue drops below $40 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in software sales is key for the company's long-term strategy. A slowdown could indicate market challenges.
Supportive ifSoftware solutions net sales grow by more than 7% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSoftware solutions net sales growth falls below 7% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can maintain its growth momentum. A miss could signal deeper issues in demand.
Watch forQ3 net sales guidance falls within the range of $175 million to $185 million.
Also watch forQ3 net sales guidance falls below $175 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well the company is handling market changes. A lower number may cause worry.
Watch forCapital markets net sales guidance meets or is more than $45 million.
Also watch forCapital markets net sales guidance is less than $45 million.
Why it matters: This margin guidance will show if the company can maintain profitability amid cost pressures. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance meets or is more than 26%.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance is less than 26%.